This is one of those games where we are going to lean on our models, and our season long power rankings. Michigan has held the #1 spot in our power rankings nearly all season. They have the #1 defense in the nation. This will be the toughest defense that Alabama QB Jalen Milroe has faced. Milroe has performed well passing under pressure (90 passer rating under pressure), but it will be interesting to see how he holds up against a far more aggressive Michigan defense. Michigan QB JJ McCarthy has a 119 passer rating with a clean pocket, and a 107 passer rating under pressure. Alabama’s defense has a dangerous pass rush, so it will be interesting to see if those pressure metrics hold up for McCarthy. While these teams are neck and neck in almost every metric, Michigan looks to be on the better side of these thin margins. It’s also worth looking at how the market is reacting to this insanely heavily bet game. Tickets and money are pouring in on Bama as an underdog both on the spread and moneyline. Despite that, this line has barely budged, and it’s moved toward Michigan when it has budged. Several sportsbooks reported flirting with a pick 'em line in this game. Those books quickly received action on Michigan, which moved the line back to -1.5 or -2. The upper tier of the Big Ten Conference has looked terrible in Bowl season. Two of the top dogs in that conference (Ohio State & Penn State) were blown out by SEC teams. Despite the SEC rolling, and the Big Ten falling flat, the books still favor the Big Ten team in this matchup. In a game like this, we are going to trust our numbers, and trust our read on the market. Michigan on the moneyline is our wager. Our stake is a full unit.