There are a few factors that drive us to an over bet in this exciting AFC matchup between the two top seeds. First, there is an interesting system that this game fits into. This system is only good later in the NFL season. The method behind the system includes the following ingredients. Both teams must have top 15 offenses, a win percentage over 65%, must be beyond week 10, and the total must be in the 40’s. This criteria has hit close to 60% on overs with a large data sample size. It’s expected to be a nice day in Baltimore with around 50 degree temperatures, and winds below 10 mph. There should be no weather elements limiting these offenses. Both teams hold strong defenses, but both of those defenses played physical games last week. The Dolphins played a lot of defensive snaps against an explosive Cowboys offense. The Ravens played a lot of defensive snaps against a physical and explosive 49ers offense. This game features a ton of big playmakers across both offenses. Our wager is a half unit on this game to go over the 46 point total.

Our model suggests this spread should be closer to 2 or 2.5 points. This line sat at a consensus 3 for the large majority of the week, but has officially dropped to 2.5 at many sportsbooks. Line moves are always important to monitor, but anytime a line moves through 3,6, or 7, it’s worth paying a bit more attention to. PointsBet currently has the only 3 in the market that is not juiced up. Some books have the 2.5 at (-110). Atlanta has a very underrated defense, and looks to have gotten a spark on offense with the QB switch to Taylor Heinicke. The Bears have been playing really good football over the last month, especially on defense. Since week 9, the Bears are 5-0-2 against the spread. The market looks to be catching up to them. This looks like a good spot to fade Chicago, and ride a Falcons team that is still only a game behind in their division. The Falcons play the Saints next week. A win today could very much put them back in the mix depending how things shakeout in the Bucs vs. Saints game. Falcons +3 for a half unit is our wager.

We are going with the over in this matchup between the Chiefs and Bengals. This looks like a good spot for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense to get back on track against a mediocre Bengals defense. Cincinnati’s defense ranks 28th in the NFL in pass yards per game, 32nd in pass yards per attempt, and 31st in pass plays allowed of 10+ yards. The Bengals defense also ranks well outside the league average against the run. Simply put, we expect the Chiefs to be able to do their part in getting this game over the total. The Bengals don’t have their star QB, but the rest of their offense should be available for this game. That includes star WR Ja’Marr Chase, who missed last week's game. The Chiefs defense ranks right around the middle of the pack. The strength of Kansas City’s defense is their secondary, but they may be without a key piece if L’Jarius Sneed is unable to play. He didn’t practice all week, so it seems like it will be an uphill battle for Sneed to be out there today. The Chiefs are dealing with a lot of injuries at the running back position, but it sounds like Isiah Pacheco will be able to suit up. Backup RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire did not practice all week, but he is listed as questionable. There is expected to be 7-10 mph winds, but weather should not play a big impact in the scoring of this game. Our wager is a half unit on more than 43.5 total points to be scored.

There are a couple of interesting betting angles in this Sunday Night Football game between the Vikings and Packers. Let’s start with a strong trend that points to Minnesota. Over the last 12 seasons, teams who are 7-8 playing at home in week 17, have nearly a 67% cover rate against the spread. When these 7-8 teams are home favorites, that trend bumps up to 77% against the spread. On the reverse side of this trend, when a 7-8 team is on the road in week 17, they have a 37% cover rate over that 12 year sample size. Keep in mind, trends should only be used as a reference to your other handicapping processes. In terms of this matchup itself, we see a significant edge for the Minnesota defense. It’s very hard to run against Minnesota. They also bring a lot of pressure on opposing QBs. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores loves to blitz and make young QBs uncomfortable. Jordan Love has a 71 passer rating under pressure this season. There is a lot of unknown with the Vikings starting rookie Jaren Hall at QB. We don’t have a lot of data on Hall, but he does have a lot of talented weapons around him. Even with the loss of TJ Hockenson, Hall still has arguably the best WR in the NFL, and a good offensive line. The Packers secondary will be without their top corner Jaire Alexander (suspended). It’s a thin secondary for Green Bay. The Packers defense ranks well below the league average against the run, so the Vikings should be able to have some success on the ground as well. Both of these teams have their playoff hopes on the line. The Vikings probability of making the playoffs would go to 4% with a loss, or 49% with a win. The Packers chances would drop below 1% with a loss, but to 55% with a win. A lot is on the line in this divisional game. The Vikings haven’t been great at home this season, yet this looks like a good spot to give the hometown fans a big win. Our bet is a half unit on the Vikings moneyline.