0.75 UNIT

Manuel Torres vs. Drew Dober

Manuel Torres Moneyline (+105)

The betting market was riding high on Manuel Torres going into his last fight against Ignacio Bahamondes. After the loss, the market appears to be a bit uncertain about Torres, which we feel has created value at this (+105) price. Recency bias in the UFC tends to influence the betting market, often creating value on fighters coming off disappointing losses. Torres has a better significant striking differential than Drew Dober. Torres also has a significantly higher knockdown average per 15 minutes at 3.4, compared to 0.6 for Dober. Keep in mind that Drew Dober has a lot more octagon experience and has faced higher-level competition, which weighs into those knockdown averages. Torres is a threat to win by submission in addition to his striking power. He’s also fighting on home turf in Mexico City, where he should be more acclimated to the elevation. Torres does have some question marks about his durability, and given Dober's heavy hands, we can see why there would be appeal on the Dober side. For us, we prefer to side with the younger fighter, who looks to have more paths to victory if he can avoid being knocked out. Manuel Torres on the moneyline is our wager.

(3/28 at 8:47am via BetMGM)

(WIN)

Elite 8 Results:

0.5 UNIT

Duke vs. Alabama

Under 175.5 (-110)

This total opened at 169.5, and the sharper side of the market appears to have favored the over at that number. The books have consistently moved this line upwards from the opening, all the way to the current total of 175.5. It’s important to note that the heavy influx of sharper over money seemed to occur in the 169.5 to 172.5 range. This total has now moved a full possession (3 points) outside of that range. These are two high-powered offenses, and Alabama just broke the NCAA record for three-pointers in a game, scoring 113 points. However, Duke has a top-5 ranked defense that is well-equipped to handle Alabama's fast tempo. Many teams get lured into trying to run with Alabama and keep pace, but we don’t anticipate Duke coach Jon Scheyer falling into that trap. Duke has a significant defensive edge while also possessing a more efficient offense than Alabama. We will look for Duke to prioritize controlling the tempo, which should lead to fewer possessions and favor the under. Keep in mind, both of these teams can still score 80+ points with this total going under. This will likely be a 40-minute nail-biter given the pace and offensive firepower, but our wager is a half unit on less than 175.5 total points being scored.

(3/29 at 10:33am via DraftKings)

(WIN)

1.25 UNIT

Michigan State vs. Ole Miss

Michigan State Moneyline (-170)

Ole Miss has cashed back-to-back as underdogs in the first two rounds of this tournament. They closed (+120) against North Carolina and (+200) against Iowa State. In the Iowa State win, Ole Miss shot 57% from three-point range and 58% overall. Michigan State has the 5th ranked defense in the nation, and they rank 1st in defending the perimeter. The Spartans opponents are shooting just 27% from three-point range over the full season sample size. We have little doubt that Ole Miss will regress from their last offensive performance. This Michigan State team has very few weak spots outside of their three-point shooting. All other elements of Tom Izzo’s team rank near the top of the nation. These NCAA tournament spreads are extremely sharp, especially as we get later into the tournament with fewer games. We are going to lay the (-170) moneyline on the Spartans to win and advance.

(3/27 at 8:18am via Caesars)

(WIN)

0.25 UNIT

Tigers @ Dodgers

Tigers Moneyline (+188)

We are going to fade Japanese rookie sensation Roki Sasaki in this matchup. Sasaki pitched three innings against the Cubs in his major league debut on March 19th. Within those three innings, Sasaki had five walks and did not appear to have full command of his pitches. Tigers starter Reese Olson had very impressive metrics in the 2024 season, holding a FIP in the low 3s with a 100+ inning sample size. The Tigers have a strong bullpen and a top-5 ranked defense behind Olson. Offensively, the Dodgers have a notable advantage, but their overall edge in this game isn’t steep enough to warrant the (+188) moneyline price that is currently available. Our wager is a small quarter unit on the Tigers moneyline.

(3/29 at 8:38am via BetRivers)

(LOSS)

0.5 UNIT

Cubs @ Diamondbacks

Diamondbacks Moneyline (-130)

The Diamondbacks are coming off a disappointing loss with their ace Zac Gallen on the mound yesterday. We like their chances of bouncing back today with a win behind Merrill Kelly. While Kelly didn't have a great spring training in terms of his ERA and WHIP, his strikeout rate was up, which is very encouraging. Kelly missed the majority of last season, but he looks to be healthy and ready to roll, as indicated by the D-backs giving him the nod today. Jameson Taillon struggled in spring training, and more alarmingly, he allowed 5 home runs in 10.2 innings. The Diamondbacks hit right-handed pitching very well and should hold the offensive edge while the starters are in the game. Both bullpens have some question marks heading into the season, but we are comfortable with the (-130) price on the Diamondbacks moneyline.

(3/28 at 9:09am via BetMGM)

(WIN)

Elite 8 Results:

0.75 UNIT

Alabama vs. Duke

Duke Team Total Over 90.5 (-120)

*3/29 at 9:12 via Fanatics

(LOSS)

1 UNIT

Ole Miss vs. Michigan State

0.5u - Ole Miss 1st Half Moneyline (+130)

0.5u - Ole Miss +3.5 (-106)

*3/27 at 10:23am via BetRivers

(WIN X2)

0.5 UNIT

Purdue vs. Houston

Under 61.5 First Half (-115)

*3/27 at 10:24am via BetRivers

(WIN)

0.5 UNIT

Texas Tech West Region Winner (+280)

*3/27 at 10:24am via BetRivers

(LOSS)

Elite 8 Results:

0.5 UNIT

2 Team Parlay (-125)

Florida Moneyline

Duke Moneyline

*3/29 at 8:23am via FanDuel

(WIN)

1 UNIT

2 Team Parlay (-169)

Auburn Moeyline

Houston Moneyline

*3/28 at 7:52pm via FanDuel

(WIN)

0.5 UNIT

Michigan State vs. Ole Miss

Michigan State -3.5 (-110)

*3/28 at 12:20pm via BetMGM

(LOSS)