0.5 UNIT

Giants @ Phillies

Phillies Moneyline (-150)

We backed the Giants in the first game of this series yesterday as short underdogs, but we are flipping over to the Phillies side today in game two of the series. Phillies starter Jesus Luzardo has been fantastic through his first three starts of the season, holding a 1.78 FIP. Luzardo is a lefty, and the Giants offense does not hit left-handed pitching as well as they hit righties. Giants starter Justin Verlander has an ERA in the high 6’s and a FIP approaching 4. Verlander is a future first ballot Hall of Famer, but he’s 42 years old, and his metrics have dipped far from where they were in his prime. The Giants bullpen has better metrics currently, but it’s worth noting that the Phillies bullpen has all of their top relievers fresh and available for tonight. Our wager is a half unit on the Phillies moneyline.

(4/15 at 10:50am via BetRivers)

(WIN)

0.25 UNIT

Guardians @ Orioles

Guardians Moneyline (+130)

This game features two starting pitchers who both do not have particularly good metrics. Orioles starter Charlie Morton is a veteran righty with a FIP in the 5s. The Guardians offense ranks right around the league average in wRC+ against righties. Guardians starter Logan Allen is a lefty with a FIP in the 5s, and it is worth mentioning that the Orioles' offense does not hit left-handed pitching as well as they hit righties. The larger advantage we see for the Guardians in this game is in the later innings, where their bullpen has a significant edge. The Guardians bullpen is completely fresh heading into tonight. If Cleveland can keep this game close heading into the 6th inning, they should have a great opportunity to win. We will take a small flier on the (+130) moneyline price.

(4/15 at 10:32am via Caesars)

(WIN)

0.25 UNIT

Mets @ Twins

Twins Moneyline (+100)

The Twins are off to a rough start to the season with a 5-12 record. Bailey Ober is certainly on the hook for one of those losses, as he was rocked on the road by the Cardinals in his opening start. Ober allowed 8 hits and 8 earned runs in 2.2 innings. As you can imagine, that performance drastically hurt his metrics, especially in a small sample size. Ober bounced back with two strong performances in his more recent two starts. Mets starter Tylor Megill has much better metrics on paper, but we have the true value of these two starters very close to one another. Both teams hold top 10 ranked bullpens, but the Twins bullpen is a bit fresher heading into tonight's game. Minnesota’s star closer, Jhoan Duran, did not pitch yesterday. All things considered, we like the (+100) price on the Twins moneyline.

(4/15 at 10:46am via BetRivers)

(WIN)

0.5 UNIT

Hawks @ Magic

Hawks +5.5 (-110)

This is a very interesting stylistic matchup. The Magic hold a top 5 defense, but a bottom 10 offense. Orlando plays at a slow pace in order to minimize the amount of possessions in the game. The Hawks have an offense that ranks slightly above the league average, but a bottom 10 ranked defense. Atlanta likes to play at a fast pace to maximize the amount of possessions for their offense. These teams have played four times this season and are 2-2 both straight up and against the spread. By the metrics, the Hawks have a better assist to turnover ratio and they shoot the three ball much better than Orlando. Jalen Suggs remains out for the Magic, who is one of the best defenders in the NBA at his position. Our wager is a half unit on the Hawks to keep this game within 5.5 points.

(4/15 at 10:54am via Caesars)

(LOSS)

0.5 UNIT

Grizzlies @ Warriors

Grizzlies +7 (-110)

This will be the fourth matchup between the Grizzlies and Warriors this season. The Grizzlies are 1-3 in those games but 2-2 against the spread. Both teams will have all of their key starters available. It’s interesting to note that the Warriors were not profitable against the spread at home or as home favorites this season. They tend to be a bit overvalued at the Chase Center. The Grizzlies went 22-19 against the spread on the road this season. In terms of the metrics, the Warriors hold slightly better offensive and defensive efficiency metrics. Memphis likes to play at a fast pace, while the Warriors veteran roster likes to play at a more controlled pace. The Warriors are a rightful favorite given the metrics and their home-court advantage, but the 7 point spread is steep. We will opt for a half-unit wager on the Grizzlies with the +7 points. 

(4/15 at 10:56am via FanDuel)

(WIN)

0.75 UNIT

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes

Alexander Volkanovski Moneyline (-125)

Diego Lopes is riding a 5-fight win streak heading into this fight. Alexander Volkanovski has suffered back-to-back knockouts against Ilia Topuria and Islam Makhachev. While Volk is 1-3 in his last 4 fights, those losses have come against the #1 and #3 pound-for-pound fighters in the world. Volk has a significant experience advantage in terms of the level of competition he’s faced throughout his career. This will be by far the toughest test of Diego Lopes's career, while we could argue this will be a step down in competition for Volk from his last handful of fights. Diego Lopes has never gone 5 rounds, while Volk is experienced and thrives in 5-round fights. If you take a look at our UFC betting charts, Volkanovski holds a much better significant striking differential. Diego Lopes appears to hold the power advantage, and he will certainly be dangerous in the early rounds of this fight. Lopes is dangerous on the ground, but Volk has never been submitted, and nobody (including Islam Makhachev) has been able to dominate him with control time. If Volk can avoid being knocked out early, the metrics suggest he has the overall advantages with his skill set in this matchup. Alexander Volkanovski on the moneyline is our wager.

(4/10 at 12:44pm via FanDuel)

(WIN)

0.5 UNIT

Paddy Pimblett vs. Michael Chandler

Paddy Pimblett Moneyline (-143)

Michael Chandler is a dangerous underdog in this matchup, but our money is on Paddy Pimblett for a few key reasons. When we evaluate these fighters purely by the metrics on our UFC betting charts, Paddy appears to have the striking and grappling advantages. Michael Chandler has significant power in his hands with 11 career knockouts, but Paddy Pimblett has shown a remarkably resilient chin thus far in his UFC career. He has never been knocked out or knocked down, and in Paddy’s words, “Scousers don’t get knocked out.” According to the UFC metrics, Paddy Pimblett actually has a higher knockdown average per 15 minutes than Michael Chandler. Pimblett throws slightly more volume and has held a better significant striking differential over his opponents. There is an eight-year age gap in this fight, and historically in the UFC, the younger fighter tends to win in these situations more than 60% of the time. The data and betting trends both tilt toward the Paddy side. Our wager is a half unit on the Paddy Pimblett moneyline. 

(4/12 at 7:06am via BetRivers)

(WIN)

0.5 UNIT

Jean Silva vs. Bryce Mitchell

Jean Silva By KO/TKO (+120)

If you enjoy a fight with some bad blood between the two opponents, be sure to watch this one. Bryce Mitchell has only been knocked out once in his career, but it was a particularly bad knockout by Josh Emmett. Bryce Mitchell went out cold, and the visual was not good to put it lightly. Mitchell bounced back with a win against Kron Gracie, who did not present much of a knockout threat with 0 KO/TKOs in his MMA career. Jean Silva is a knockout artist. He's 4-0 in the UFC with 4 KO/TKOs. Silva averages 1.5 knockdowns per 15 minutes in the UFC octagon, and more often than not, only one knockdown has been needed for Silva to end the fight. Bryce Mitchell is a very good grappler and certainly has a path to victory if he can keep this fight on the ground. However, we aren’t so confident that Bryce will be able to do that. Jean Silva has 80% takedown defense, and even if he gets controlled for a round, Silva just needs one clean shot to cash this ticket. We like the (+120) price on Silva to find the knockout at some point in this fight. Our stake is a half unit.

(4/10 at 6:05am via BetRivers)

(LOSS)

0.5 UNIT

Virna Jandiroba vs. Xiaonan Yan

Virdna Jandiroba Moneyline (-142)

This is a clash of styles between a talented striker, Yan Xiaonan, and a very good grappler, Virna Jandiroba. While Virna will be in trouble in this matchup if she is unable to secure takedowns, we like her chances of securing them. Yan Xiaonan holds a 63% takedown defense mark, and she averages being controlled for about 4 minutes per UFC fight. This is a bad recipe against Virna, who averages over 2 takedowns per 15 minutes and is very good at controlling her opponents on the mat. Virna has 14 submissions on her MMA resume, and she’s never been knocked out. We are going to lay the (-142) moneyline price behind Virna Jandiroba.

(4/10 at 12:49pm via DraftKings)

(WIN)

0.25 UNIT

Dominick Reyes vs. Nikita Krylov

Dominick Reyes By KO/TKO (+410)

Dominick Reyes has won 9 of his 14 career wins by KO/TKO. He’s coming off back-to-back KO/TKO wins against Anthony Smith and Dustin Jacoby. Reyes has faced top-tier competition in the UFC octagon, yet still averages one knockdown per 15 minutes. Nikita Krylov is very durable, having only been knocked out once in his career, which was back in 2013. Krylov averages over 2 takedowns per 15 minutes, but Dominick Reyes has very good takedown defense (82%). On paper, Reyes holds better striking volume and power than Krylov while the fight is standing. This (+410) prop is a longshot, but it looks to be Dominick Reyes' most favorable path to victory. Nikita Krylov’s grappling ability gives him a more favorable path to a decision victory if this fight goes the distance. We will take a small flier on this new and improved version of Dominick Reyes to find his third consecutive knockout.

(4/10 at 6:12am via FanDuel)

(WIN)

0.6 UNIT

0.5u- Xander Schauffele Top 20 (-110)

0.1u - Xander Schaufffele To Win (+2200)

We have only seen Xander Schauffele in four events so far this year. His best finish was in his most recent outing at the Valspar Championship (12th). Schauffele has a strong track record at the Masters. He finished 8th last year and 10th in 2023. He also finished 2nd in 2019 behind Tiger Woods, and 3rd in 2021. Schauffele has four top 10 finishes in seven Masters appearances overall. Last year, Xander Schauffele achieved multiple outright wins in some of the biggest tournaments of the year, including the Open Championship and PGA Championship. We are wagering a half unit on Schauffele to finish inside the top 20 at (-110), and an additional small wager on an outright win at (+2200).

(4/8 at 8:19am via BetRivers)

(1-1)

0.6 UNIT

0.5u - Collin Morikawa Top 20 (-165)

0.1u - Collin Morikawa To Win (+1800)

Collin Morikawa is playing some of the best golf of his young career right now. In the five events he’s played in 2025, Morikawa has finished 2nd, 17th, 17th, 2nd, and 10th. His recent track record at Augusta National is very strong. Morikawa finished 3rd at the Masters in 2024, 10th in 2023, and 5th in 2022. The only thing Morikawa has not yet accomplished at the Masters is an outright win. Considering his current form and his track record here, we certainly want to buy some equity in Morikawa. Our wager is a half unit on a top 20 finish, with a small wager on an outright win at (+1800).

(4/8 at 8:14am via DraftKings)

(1-1)

0.5 UNIT

Scottie Scheffler Top 10 (-186)

It is difficult to find betting value on Scottie Scheffler these days. Despite Scheffler not playing at the level he was last season, his odds remain at a premium. While we cannot justify the (+400) outright odds, BetRivers is offering a decent price on a top 10 finish at (-186). The rest of the market sits closer to between (-225) and (-300) for a top 10 finish. Scheffler has won the Masters in two of the last three years, with a top 10 finish in between. He has never finished outside of the top 20 in five appearances at Augusta National. We expect Scottie to be right there at the top of the leaderboard on Sunday. Our wager is a half unit on a top 10 finish.

(4/8 at 8:10am via BetRivers)

(WIN)

0.35 UNIT

0.25u - Russell Henley Top 30 (-110)

0.1u - Russell Henley To Win (+5500)

Russell Henley has been performing exceptionally well in 2025. He won the Arnold Palmer Invitational in early March and has achieved six top 30 finishes in seven events played this year. Henley has finished within the top 31 spots on the leaderboard in six of his last seven appearances at Augusta National. He tied for 4th in 2023. All things considered, Russell Henley checks a lot of the boxes we look for at the Masters. Our wager is a quarter unit on a top 30 finish, and an additional sprinkle on Henley to win at (+5500).

(4/8 at 8:23am via BR & DK)

(LOSS)

0.35 UNIT

0.25u - Min Woo Lee Top 30 (-115)

0.1u - Min Woo Lee To Win (+6000)

Min Woo Lee carries strong momentum heading into Augusta National. He won the Texas Children's Houston Open a couple of weekends ago. Prior to that, he finished 20th at The Players Championship. Min Woo Lee has finished inside the top 20 in five of his seven events played this year. The majority of Masters winners have won a tournament in the calendar year leading up to the event, and Min Woo Lee is a name that checks that box, in addition to many others. He finished 22nd at last year's Masters and played very well in the US-based majors. Our wager is a quarter unit on Min Woo Lee to finish inside the top 30, and a small sprinkle on an outright win at (+6000).

(4/8 at 8:29am via Caesars & DK)

(LOSS)

0.25 UNIT

Tyrrell Hatton Top 20 (+175)

Tyrrell Hatton is one of the wild cards of this event. Hatton is on the LIV roster, so this will be his first PGA Tour event of 2025. Hatton has had a solid season with LIV and appears to be in good form heading into this week. Tyrrell Hatton has a lot of experience at Augusta National, having played this event eight times in his career. Hatton did not perform well in his first four appearances at the Masters from 2017 to 2020, but he has played well in his more recent four appearances. This includes a top 10 finish last year and a top 20 finish in 2021. At (+175) odds, we see a small edge compared to where our models suggest Hatton should be priced. We are going with a small wager on Hatton to finish inside the top 20.

(4/8 at 8:07am via BetRivers)

(WIN)

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes

Alexander Volkanovski Moneyline

(WIN)

Michael Chandler vs. Paddy Pimblett

Paddy Pimblett Moneyline

(WIN)

Bryce Mitchell vs. Jean Silva

Bryce Mitchell Moneyline

(LOSS)

Yair Rodríguez vs. Patrício Pitbull

Yair Rodríguez Moneyline

(WIN)

Nikita Krylov vs. Dominick Reyes

Dominick Reyes By KO/TKO

(WIN)

Dan Ige vs. Sean Woodson

Sean Woodson Moneyline

(LOSS)

Yan Xiaonan vs. Virna Jandiroba

Yan Xiaonan Moneyline

(LOSS)

Jim Miller vs. Chase Hooper

Chase Hooper Moneyline

(WIN)

Darren Elkins vs. Julian Erosa

Julian Erosa Moneyline

(WIN)

Sedriques Dumas vs. Michał Oleksiejczuk

Michał Oleksiejczuk Moneyline

(WIN)

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes

Alexander Volkanovski Moneyline

(WIN)

Michael Chandler vs. Paddy Pimblett

Paddy Pimblett Moneyline

(WIN)

Bryce Mitchell vs. Jean Silva

Bryce Mitchell Moneyline

(LOSS)

Yair Rodríguez vs. Patrício Pitbull

Yair Rodríguez Moneyline

(WIN)

Nikita Krylov vs. Dominick Reyes

Dominick Reyes By KO/TKO

(WIN)

Dan Ige vs. Sean Woodson

Sean Woodson Moneyline

(LOSS)