These teams split the two matchups in the regular season, with each team winning their home game. There are a couple of factors pushing our bet to the FAU side. First, our model has FAU winning this game outright by 2 points. We referenced our numbers to KenPom, who’s model calls for a 3 point outright win for the Florida Atlantic Owls. FAU ranks higher in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. The danger with betting on FAU is that this team truly lives or dies by the three point line. The Owls get about 38% of their total points from beyond the arc (23rd most amongst any team in the nation). If FAU has a poor shooting performance, this ticket is likely toast. That said, UAB has a good defense (79th in adjusted defensive efficiency), but they rank outside of the top 100 nationally at defending the perimeter. UAB’s biggest edge will be in the rebounding department, but FAU has improved throughout the year in this metric. Our wager is one unit on FAU to either win, or to keep the game within a point.

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