Duke is on a roll right now. They carry an eight game win streak into this matchup, including three straight wins away from their home court (North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Miami). Virginia also carries good momentum into this game with four straight wins, knocking off North Carolina and Clemson so far in the ACC tournament. These teams played once this season back on February 11th in Virginia. The game was highly competitive and went into overtime, with Virginia ultimately winning 69-62. By the numbers, Duke has the slight edge offensively, with Virginia having the slight edge defensively. Both teams play at a very slow tempo, so keep that in mind if you're considering betting the total. Virginia will have to limit both Duke's rebounding edge, and their ability to generate second chance points. Duke ranks 6th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage. Rebounding is not a strength of this Virginia group. Regardless, our model suggests this line should be closer to a point, so we will continue to trust our numbers and take the 3 points with the underdogs.

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