Our team at SteadyPicks has an interesting take on this game. While the storyline has been that the injury to Justin Moore might be the end of the road for Villanova, our numbers beg to differ. Especially in terms of betting this game. If you dive into the numbers, you'll find that while Justin Moore is Villanova's 2nd leading scorer and is undoubtedly an NBA prospect, he also takes a ton of shots, and is not always efficient with those shots. Moore shoots under 40% from the field, and leads the team in field goal attempts by a solid margin. The bigger hit with Moore will be on the defensive side of the ball, where his presence will be tougher to replace. Villanova will need players like Caleb Daniels and Chris Arcidiacono to step up tonight. Those two players have the highest individual value add percentage (via ValueAddBasketball.com) outside of Villanova's original starting 5. Jay Wright has been here and won these Final 4 games. He has the best free throw shooting team in the nation at 82.5%. We expect Villanova to play smart basketball, and keep this game competitive. Give us the 4.5 points for one unit.

It's hard to find an edge at this stage of March Madness. The SteadyPicks model suggests this spread should be closer to 5.5 or 6, so we see some value with the -4 currently available at DraftKings. Duke has the #1 adjusted offensive efficiency rating in the nation (via KenPom). Over the last 3 games, Duke is shooting nearly 40% from 3 point range, and 2 of those games were against top defenses in the nation (Texas Tech & Arkansas). As good as North Carolina has been in the month of March, our data tells us this is the day to fade them. We will lay the 4 points with Duke, our bet is one unit.

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