This bet is a fade on Giants starting pitcher Alex Cobb, who has not pitched well recently. Cobb is a ground ball pitcher that has been giving up a lot of home runs. His strikeout rate is way down, and his sharp contact rate is significantly up. Cobb has faced some tough lineups this month (Braves & Rangers), but even the Oakland Athletics rocked him for 5 earned runs (including 2 home runs). Cobb is a high end starter, but it is very apparent something is going on with either his arm or his mechanics. On the Phillies side of this pitching matchup is Michael Lorenzen. Since being traded to the Phillies, Lorenzen has pitched fantastic in 2 of his 3 starts. Pitchers often struggle after throwing a no hitter or perfect game, so we aren’t going to put too much stake into Lorenzens last start. His metrics on the season are very good. Our wager is on the Phillies to complete the sweep.

We are going to back the Padres today behind starting pitcher Seth Lugo. The veteran righty is coming off of one of his best starts of the season against the Diamondbacks. Lugo pitched 6 shutout innings and recorded a season high of 9 strikeouts. On the Marlins side of this matchup is last year's NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara. It’s been a tough season for Sandy. He allowed 3 home runs in his most recent start. His metrics, compared to last season, are down across the board. Sandy is allowing more hits, more home runs, more walks, and less strikeouts. He’s 4-6 with a 4.55 ERA and 1.27 WHIP on the road this season. This will be the Marlins 6th consecutive road game, whereas the Padres have been at home in San Diego for well over a week. If this Padres team is going to have any shot at making a playoff push, these are the type of games they need to start winning. Our bet is on San Diego to win.

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