The Rockies are a popular bet today with their hometown ace Kyle Freeland on the mound. Freeland has pitched well in Colorado this month, but his most recent start on the road was a bit alarming. He lasted just 2 innings and allowed 8 runs on 9 hits. It’s also worth noting that Kyle Freeland is a lefty, and the Marlins happen to hit left handed pitching very well. Miami ranks 5th in the majors in batting average against lefties (.287), and 6th in slugging percentage (.454). Marlins starting pitcher Braxton Garrett carries strong momentum into this game. In Garrett’s last two starts (11.1 innings), he's allowed just 4 hits, 1 earned run, with 16 strikeouts. Garrett's ERA is slightly misleading due to one terrible start where he allowed 11 earned runs against the Braves. He's allowed 2 earned runs or less in 7 of his 9 starts this season. Braxton Garrett is also a lefty, which is not ideal for this Rockies lineup. Colorado ranks bottom 3 in the majors in both slugging percentage (.367) and OPS (.661) versus left handed pitching. Our wager is a half unit on the Marlins moneyline.

We are going to side with the experience of Aaron Nola in this NL East divisional matchup. Braves 24 year old starting pitcher Dylan Dodd is making just his 4th major league start. Through his first 3 starts, Dodd’s numbers are bad. He’s allowing an average of about 14 hits and 2 home runs per 9 innings. His strikeout rate per 9 sits at 4.1, which is very low. Dodd’s ERA and FIP are both north of 5.50. One factor that should be beneficial for Dylan Dodd today is that he is a lefty. The Phillies have been terrible against left handed pitching this season. They rank dead last in on base percentage against southpaws (.280). It's key to be aware of the Phillies struggles against lefties, but it’s not going to push us off of them. Phillies starter Aaron Nola is coming off of his best start of the year with a season high 10 strikeouts. That performance came against a Cubs lineup that has given right handed starters a lot of trouble this season. The first 5 innings moneyline price is juiced up to (-120) or (-125) at most books. We opted for less juice and bet the full game moneyline. Our stake is a half unit.

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