A few notes to consider here in game 5 of the Eastern Conference finals. It’s interesting that despite losing both games in Boston outright, this spread sits right around where it was in game 1 before the series began (-8). The books have dropped the Celtics series price from 10-1 (+1000) prior to game 4, to roughly 2-1 (+225) heading into game 5. In terms of the implied odds, that shifts the Celtics probability of advancing from about 9% to 30%. The (-300) moneyline price on Boston tonight implies roughly a 75% chance that we see a game 6 in Miami. All of the ticket split and handle percentage resources that we use unanimously display the large majority of the tickets on the Heat. Despite that, the total handle is relatively close to 50-50. The only logical explanation for this would be that the larger wagers are hitting the Celtics side. Either that, or maybe these trackers that we all love to use are not as accurate as we think. Always use these resources with a grain of salt, and we highly recommend referencing them to look for consistencies. Many times these betting split/handle trackers have data from one specific sportsbook only. If you are a bettor who likes to “fade the public', just remember that oftentimes the market will not be nearly as split as one specific tracker may indicate. In these massively bet playoff games, we believe the books just want their 10% regardless of which side it comes from. It would be unwise for a sportsbook to have a liability on one side given the magnitude of these NBA playoff handles. We are going to opt to pay a little extra juice to get under the flat 8. In game 4 the Celtics won the turnover battle, and finally had a productive three point shooting performance (40%). Boston got up 13 more three point shots than the Miami Heat, which is a recipe that works well when shots are falling. If the Celtics can protect the ball as they did in game 4, and shoot near their season averages from the perimeter, we like their chances. Celtics -7.5 for a half unit is our wager.

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