The Astros had a rough weekend, losing 3 straight to their division rivals (Mariners). The weekend went much better for the Red Sox, who swept the Yankees in the Bronx. This looks like a great opportunity for the Astros to get back in the win column tonight against Red Sox left handed starter James Paxton. Houston’s offense ranks 4th in the MLB against left handed pitching in both slugging percentage (.461) and OPS (.799). Astros starting pitcher Christian Javier hasn't had one of his best seasons to this point. However, he still holds an impressive 8-2 record and averages less than 8 hits per 9 innings. The Astros bullpen holds the better metrics both recently (last 30 days), and over the course of the full season. Our wager is a half unit on the Astros moneyline.

The Angels had a much needed day off yesterday. This team has had a brutal schedule throughout the month of August. The Angels started the month off against the Braves. In their last 3 series, the Angels have played the Astros (in Houston), the Rangers (in Texas), and the Rays. The Reds are a quality team, but this will be a more favorable series for the Angels. Reds starting pitcher Graham Ashcraft has improved drastically this summer. In May/June, Ashcraft had some of the worst metrics in the MLB. Ashcraft’s strikeout rate has been dipping again, and his hard hit rate has been rising. Cincinnati has lost the last 3 games Ashcraft has started, and those games were against the Nationals, Marlins, and Guardians. It’s also worth noting that the Reds will travel cross country after a grueling series with the Blue Jays. Our biggest concern in this matchup is Angels starter Lucas Giolito. Since being traded to the Angels, Giolito has been terrible. He is 1-2 with a 9.19 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in August. Despite those poor metrics, we see value here at this (-125) price behind the home team. The Angels hit some expected regression with a thin lineup this month. With Mike Trout expected to return today, we should start to see the Angels offense creep back to where it was in July. Our wager is a half unit on the Angels moneyline.

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