We like this price on Twins starting pitcher Joe Ryan. At home in Minnesota this season, Ryan has a 3.32 ERA and an impressive 0.89 WHIP. Despite a few rough starts this summer, his arm looks as good as it ever has. Joe Ryan is averaging 15 strikeouts per 9 innings in July. White Sox starter Lance Lynn holds a 6.03 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 62.2 innings pitched on the road this season. The Twins bullpen is significantly better than the White Sox. We see a clear cut pitching advantage for Minnesota in this matchup. Twins on the moneyline is our wager.

After posting a 1.08 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in the month of June, Phillies starter Ranger Saurez has hit major regression in July. In three starts this month Suarez has a 5.82 ERA, and his WHIP has doubled from where it was in June (1.82 WHIP in July). The good news for Suarez is that he is back on the road, which is where he performs best. His road ERA this season is 2.39 versus a 5.64 ERA in Philly. Suarez has performed better on the road in each of his last three seasons. The Guardians are starting Gavin Williams, who is one of the top pitching prospects in the MLB. Williams has struggled in his three starts in Cleveland, and two of those starts came against the Athletics and Royals. Gavin Williams has poor metrics against left handed hitters, and this Phillies lineup has a lot of lefty sluggers in it. The Phillies bullpen has been significantly more reliable in the month of July. Our wager is a half unit on the Phillies moneyline.

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