Andre Fili will have a 5 inch height and reach advantage in this matchup. Outside of being the bigger fighter, we don’t see many areas where Fili looks to be better. Nathaniel Wood is an extremely high volume strike. Wood averages 6.3 significant strikes landed per minute, which is nearly double what Fili averages. Wood has some of the best low kicks in the UFC, and he is also now fighting at his ideal weight class in the featherweight division. Andre Fili has a lot of experience against high level competition, but hasn’t necessarily performed well in these spots. Fili has just one finish over the last 8 years. If Fili is unable to land a finish, it’s hard to imagine him winning on the scorecards given the much higher striking volume and output that Nathaniel Wood brings. Our wager is one unit on Nathaniel Wood to win this fight by any method.

Julija Stoliarenko was knocked out by Chelsea Chandler in her last fight. She’s been knocked out three times in her professional MMA career. Stoliarenko is 1-4 since joining the UFC, with her only win coming against Jessica-Rose Park. On the other side of this matchup is the hometown favorite Molly McCann. Her last fight against Erin Blanchfield did not go well, but Molly had back to back knockouts prior to that loss. She had 4 knockouts prior to joining the UFC. Molly averages 3 more significant strikes per minute and should have a clear advantage on the feet. Julija Stoliarenko is a good grappler who is known for her armbars. If Molly can keep this fight standing, we like her odds to find a knockout and erupt the London crowd. Our stake is a half unit.

Joel Alvarez has won by finish in all of his 19 professional wins. He has never seen a judge's decision in his 10 year MMA career. Alvarez is coming off of a loss against a highly talented opponent in Arman Tsarukyan. He had 4 straight finishes prior to that loss. Marc Diakiese will have the home crowd behind him, but he is just 4-6 in his last 10 fights. He’s coming off of a unanimous decision loss against Michael Johnson. Our biggest concern with Diakiese is his inability to finish fights. He hasn’t won a fight by knockout or submission since 2017. In a fight that the books are not expecting to hit the scorecards, we are going to side with the fighter who looks to be more likely to land the finish. 

We are going to take a flier on the underdog in this matchup. Yanal Ashmouz is 7-0 as a pro. He’s coming off of a highlight knockout against a talented Sam Patterson. Chris Duncan was knocked out by Viacheslav Borshchev on his first contender series appearance. In his second contender series Duncan landed a knockout, and followed that up with a unanimous decision win in his UFC debut. There is a bit of unknown here with the limited sample size of Ashmouz, but he’s been extremely impressive in that sample size. Our wager is a half unit on the underdog to win.