Rays starter Tyler Glasnow hit some regression in the month of September. He bounced back with an impressive start against the Red Sox to close out the season. Glasnow threw 5 innings, recorded 9 strikeouts, allowed 2 hits and 0 earned runs. He has a 3.18 ERA and 0.88 WHIP at home in Tampa this season. Rangers starter Jordan Montgomery has pitched very well over his last 4 starts. Our concern with the Rangers is once Montgomery exits the game, he will pass it over to a struggling bullpen. The Rangers bullpen ranked well below the league average with a 4.77 ERA. The Rays bullpen has the edge in the later innings of this game. It’s also worth noting that the Rays went 53-28 in Tampa this season. They have over a 65% win percentage at home. Our wager is 1 unit on the Rays to get the win in game 1.

Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler struggled a bit early in the season. However, in the 2nd half of the season Wheeler went 6-2 with a 3.08 ERA and 0.94 WHIP (87.2 innings). He has pitched 18 innings against the Marlins this season, holding a 3.00 ERA in those games. Miami will start Jesus Luzardo, who is in very good form heading into this game. He’s also 2-0 against the Phillies this season. That being said, Luzardo has struggled on the road holding a 4.48 ERA and 1.37 WHIP away from Miami. He has a 3.07 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in Miami. The Phillies bullpen and offense have been more productive than Miami over the course of the season. Philadelphia has a big home field advantage this time of year. We’ve seen this Phillies team rally behind the energy Citizen Bank Park. Our wager is 1 unit on the Phillies moneyline.

We are going to side with the team who’s starting pitcher looks to be in a bit better form. Twins starter Pablo Lopez has allowed 11 earned runs in his last 3 starts. This includes 3 home runs. Lopez allowed 5 hits or more in all 3 of those starts. Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman has allowed 0 earned runs and just 6 hits in his last 13 innings. Gausman hasn’t allowed a home run in his last 2 starts, and he has 15 strikeouts over that stretch. These bullpens and offenses have both had their ups and downs throughout the season. Our wager is a half unit on the road dogs to win game 1.

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