In what seems to be at least a once a summer occurrence these days, the NBA landscape was rocked by a superstar trade. Continuing the ongoing trend of home-grown talent demanding exodus, Damian Lillard shocked NBA fans everywhere with his demand of a trade to Miami. But now, almost three months since then he finds himself putting a Milwaukee Bucks uniform on just in time for picture day. However, the Damian Lillard trade has played a very important role in mixing up several key teams' odds at winning the championship. So, like every summer, early bettors will either be massively rewarded for their continued belief in their teams, or massively punished for thinking they had a shot at landing a superstar (looking at you Knicks fans).

So let’s take a look at the key movers and shakers from the final stretch of the off-season, and see how their odds at the chip have changed. 

It only makes sense for us to start with the biggest losers (from Vegas’ perspective). The Portland TrailBlazers sacrificed one of the greatest players in the history of their franchise in the hopes of building a better future for themselves. Trading Lillard to the Bucks, the Blazers received in exchange: Jrue Holiday (who we’ll come back to), a 2029 first round pick and a 2028 and 2030 first round pick swap option from the Bucks, along with Deandre Ayton and Toumani Camara from the Phoenix Suns. They then flipped Holiday to the Boston Celtics for Malcolm Brogdon, Robert Williams and two future first round picks (2024 Warriors and 2029 Celtics).

This move brings their 2023-2024 season NBA Champion odds from bottom half of the league at +10,000 to a ‘scraping the barrel’ +25,000. Putting them right alongside the Houston Rockets, Charlotte Hornets and Washington Wizards, for a depressing sense of context. Now, not only will Portland fans not expect to even make the play-in tournament, they’ll also have to compost their Damian Lillard jersey collections in the hopes the basketball gods will give them someone else who can score 70 points in a single game. 

From the bottom of the league, all the way up to the very top. After an incredibly disappointing first round exit to the 8th seed Miami Heat, the prodigal son Bucks are back. Now with one of the scariest pick and roll lineups in the entire league of Lillard and Antetokounmpo, as well as having Khris Middleton returning from his injuries at the end of last season, the Bucks have earned their spot at the top of the futures odds. Sacrificing perimeter stalwart Jrue Holiday and backup Grayson Allen along with a few picks to receive one of this generation’s premiere iso and clutch-time scorers makes them the winner of the Damian Lillard sweepstakes. 

Phoenix is an interesting story, having compiled one of the most star-studded starting lineups in league history (something which Kevin Durant is certainly no stranger to), the Suns are a championship or bust team. Earlier this offseason, Suns front-office made waves trading Chris Paul, Landry Shamet and some pick swaps to Washington in exchange for Bradley Beal. After that trade, their odds at winning a championship stood at +1,100, which included the maintenance of a then-soured relationship between the team and Deandre Ayton. So, to offload that relationship they mooched in on the Lillard trade, exchanging Ayton and Toumani Camara for Grayson Allen, Keon Johnson, Nassir Little and Jusuf Nurkic. This fills that gap at center (presuming Nurkic stays healthy) and shores up what was appearing to be a very weak bench rotation. 

Personally, I wouldn’t expect this team to win the championship this season. They have pinned their hopes on three, shoot-the-ball megastars who aren’t renowned for their defense and are surrounded by a team of guys who hardly know each other. I would expect both their perimeter defense and their interior defense/rebounding to take an even further hit this season, but by God if it doesn’t rain buckets in Phoenix. I would have taken a bet on them at +1,100, but as of now, I’ll pass at +600. 

The team that can seemingly pivot its way out of anything better than Michael Jordan strikes again. Somehow, season after season, Danny Ainge looks like he has the ability to predict the league like some kind of basketball Nostradamus. Having dealt former Defensive Player of the Year, Marcus Smart for Kristaps Porzingis might have seemed a touch short-sighted to some at the time, but Nostrabuckets (good nickname?) was just slow-playing his hand, waiting for Jrue Holiday to come along. The fit is almost perfect, Holiday can defend and rebound almost as well as Smart, but he takes care of the ball better, shoots the ball better and knows how to run championship level offenses around a superstar forward. The pressure is now off Porzingis to be a team’s number one scorer, so I expect him to make at least a small resurgence, which boosts the capability of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown on both offense and defense.

This is another in a long line of A+ offseasons for Ainge and the C’s, +400 for this team seems to be one of the safest futures bets the NBA has to offer. Something would have to go seriously awry for the Celtics to not meet the Bucks in the conference finals.