The Diamondbacks have lost the last 4 games that Zac Gallen has pitched. Gallen’s metrics have dropped over the last month, but the larger issue has been the Diamondbacks offense. Arizona is 3-13 in their last 16 games. The Diamondbacks offense is hitting just .226 as a team over the last 15 days (2nd worst in MLB). Today Arizona will face Dallas Keuchel, who has not pitched in the MLB this season. Keuchel had a horrible 2022 campaign for three separate teams. He finished the season with a 2-9 record, 9.20 ERA, and a 2.06 WHIP. The Diamondbacks have a clear cut starting pitching advantage in this matchup. This looks like a great opportunity for Arizona to get back in the win column behind their ace. Our wager is on the Diamondbacks moneyline.

This is a divisional matchup with a high run total. The underdog side of these matchups has been a highly profitable spot for us over the years. When the books are expecting the scoring to be high, it creates more variance, which tends to favor the underdogs. Home field advantage is often overvalued in these divisional spots, creating more value on the road team. Blue Jays starter Chris Bassitt has had some struggles on the road this season. However, he’s also had some very good performances against top tier offenses. This season Bassitt has wins against the Astros (x2), the Braves (complete game shutout), Angels, and Padres. The Red Sox haven’t faced Bassitt the last two seasons. Their offense is not very familiar with him. Boston looks to be going with a bullpen game led by Brennan Bernandino. It’s worth noting that the Red Sox bullpen has pitched a lot of innings recently. Boston went with primarily a bullpen game yesterday, as Nick Pivetta only pitched 4 innings. Our wager is a half unit on the road divisional dogs. 

We like this price on the Braves today. The old reliable 39 year old righty Charlie Morton has struggled in his last three starts. However, his metrics on the season are solid. Morton has a 3.32 ERA in 57 innings pitched on the road this season. On the other side of this matchup is lefty Justin Steele, who has been very good for the Cubs this season. Steele ranks 3rd in the MLB in ERA this season (2.65), but our concern is that opponents are hitting .243 against him. To put this into perspective, the two ERA leaders in front of Steele are Blake Snell and Gerrit Cole. Opponents are hitting .199 against Snell, and .212 against Cole. Nathan Eovaldi ranks right behind Steele with a 2.69 ERA, and opponents are hitting just .208 against Eovaldi. There is a clear discrepancy between Justin Steele and those ERA leaders. This Braves offense holds a .877 OPS against lefties (1st in MLB), a .529 slugging percentage (1st in MLB), and a .288 overall batting average (2nd in MLB). On paper, this looks like a tough matchup for Justin Steele. We are going to side with the better offense. Our wager is a half unit on the Braves moneyline.

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