Braves starting pitcher Max Fried has not pitched since May 5th. Seeing that this is Fried’s first start in 3 months, we don’t anticipate him pitching beyond 5 innings. Freid is a lefty, and the Cubs offense ranks well above the league average against left handed pitching. It’s also worth noting that the Cubs have had the hottest offense in the MLB over the last 15 days. During this span, the Cubs are hitting .309 (1st in MLB), with a .550 slugging percentage (1st in MLB), and a .935 OPS (1st in MLB). Cubs starting pitcher Kyle Hendricks slightly struggled against the Cardinals in his last start. However, Hendricks does a great job avoiding giving up home runs. Hendricks has not allowed a home run in his last 3 starts (19.1 innings), and averages less than 1 home run allowed per 9 innings. If he can avoid giving up the long ball against the Braves, the Cubs should have a great opportunity to either win or keep this game within a run. Our wager is a half unit on the Cubs +1.5 run line.

We are going to continue to fade Yankees starting pitcher Luis Severino. The numbers for Severino this season are downright awful. His ERA sits at 7.49 and his FIP is north of 6. Severino has a 1.83 WHIP on the season, and he’s allowing an average of 13 hits, over 2 home runs, and about 4 walks per 9 innings. Astros starter Hunter Brown has had struggles of his own this season, but his numbers are significantly better than Severino. The Astros offense has been significantly better both over the course of the season and of recent. Our wager is on the Astros moneyline. 

Dodgers starter Bobby Miller is a 24 year old rookie, who has been a bright surprise for his team this season. Our concern with this rookie is how drastic his home and road pitching splits are. Miller is 4-0 with a 2.63 ERA on the road this season (27.1 innings). At home, Miller is 2-2 with a 5.85 ERA. It’s very rare to see a rookie starting pitcher have this type of success on the road. We believe some regression is coming for the rookie, and this Padres lineup has the ammo to change those road splits drastically. Padres starter Yu Darvish isn’t having his best season, but he pitched very well against the Dodgers earlier this season. Darvish is coming off of one of his best starts of the season. He pitched 6 inning shutout innings against the Rangers, and allowed just 3 hits while recording 9 strikeouts. The Padres had a day off yesterday to rest their bullpen, whereas the Dodgers have played 3 straight. Our wager is a half unit on the Padres moneyline.

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