This is a tough matchup from a betting perspective. Prior to making this wager, it’s important to know that Rob Font is tough as nails! He’s lost inside the distance just one time throughout his entire 26 fight professional MMA career. He was submitted in 2017 against Pedro Munhoz. Cory Sandhaen has won by KO/TKO in 3 of his last 4 wins. Sandhagen was unable to finish Chito Vera in his last fight, but nobody has ever knocked out or submitted Vera. Rob Font took this fight on short notice, while Cory Sandhagen has been training for a 5 round bout with Umar Nurmagomedov. Font averages more significant strikes per minute, and has a higher knockdown average. However, Sandhagen’s unorthodox style and movements make him extremely difficult to hit. Chito Vera is known for tracking down his prey, and Chito couldn’t figure out how to get to Cory for the entire 25 minutes of that fight. With this being a 5 round fight, we like Cory’s chances to find a finish. Our stake is a half unit.

Gavin Tucker has not competed in over 2 years. He’s coming off of being knocked out by Dan Ige in the first round of his last fight. Tucker was on a 3 fight win streak prior to that loss, including a win over Billy Quarantillo. Diego Lopes made his UFC debut against Movsar Evloev as a huge underdog, and put on an impressive performance despite losing the fight by unanimous decision. Diego Lopes' last 4 wins have all come by finish. He has 8 knockouts and 11 submissions on his professional MMA resume. There is some unknown with Gavin Tucker given the long layoff, so rather than laying the juice on the moneyline, we will opt for much better odds on the finish. Our wager is a half unit.

The betting line in this fight has steamed toward Carlston Harris. Jeremiah Wells opened around a (-160) favorite. Throughout the course of this week, this line has dropped all the way to nearly a pick 'em. Your options at this moment are to buy low on Jeremiah Wells, or to chase the steam and pay a premium for Carlston Harris. We encourage bettors to remember that once the number moves, the value vanishes. The “sharp” bettors or “market movers” who saw value on Carlston Harris at (+145) likely no longer see value at (+100). The implied win probability for Harris at (+145) was 40%, versus a 50% implied probability at the current (+100) price. Jeremiah Wells is 4-0 in the UFC, with a diverse resume of wins (2 knockouts, 1 submission, 1 decision). Carlston Harris is the taller fighter, and his only loss in the UFC came against Shavkat Rakhmonov (17-0). We see more paths to a victory for the highly explosive and entertaining Jeremiah Wells. Our wager is a half unit on the moneyline.