The stakes are very high in this NFL regular season finale. The Dolphins have already clinched a playoff berth. The Bills could also clinch a playoff berth prior to this game (with a Jaguars loss). Regardless of whether or not that happens, the game is meaningful to both teams because the AFC East division title (and a home playoff game) is on the line. Bettors who plan to bet this game later in the day should pay close attention to the Jaguars game. If the Jags win, don’t be surprised if the Bills moneyline starts to juice up. An example of this from last season was when the Lions and Packers played in this week 18 night slot. The way things shaped out last season created a situation where Aaron Rodgers and the Packers were in a must win game to make the postseason. The Packers spread and the moneyline jumped drastically as the day played out. Green Bay ended up losing the game outright. For those seeking CLV (closing line value), be aware that this can occur. If the Jaguars lose today, the Bills would clinch a playoff berth, and this would become less of a factor to watch out for. Regardless of how the circumstances play out for the Jaguars, the Bills are our preferred side. Buffalo has gotten healthier and has been trending upward as the season has progressed. Miami is going in the complete opposite direction with both injuries and momentum. The Bills won the first matchup between these teams by 28 points while the Dolphins were at full health. Buffalo’s only loss since week 11 came against the Eagles. They led that game nearly wire to wire, but let it slip away at the end (37-34). Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa does not have a good track record against the Bills. He’s 1-5 against them in his career with a 1-1 TD to INT ratio. Josh Allen had a near perfect passer rating (158.3) against the Dolphins in the first matchup (320 yards 4 TDs 0 INTs). Our wager is 1 unit on the Bills moneyline.

This season has been quite the roller coaster for the Jacksonville Jaguars. They started the season off 1-2, but proceeded to win 7 of their next 8 games. Heading into week 13, the Jags were 8-3 with a potential #1 seed in sight. Jacksonville lost 4 consecutive games from week 13 to week 16. They bounced back with a home win against the worst team in the NFL last week (Panthers). Long story short, the Jaguars are in danger of missing the postseason. A win in this game would secure the AFC South division and a home playoff game. A loss would leave the Jags eliminated. When we look back historically at these late season games where the stakes are high for one team, and low for the other, the spreads in these games are often quite inflated. The public narrative is that the Titans have nothing to play for. However, the more likely reality is that Mike Vrabel and this Titans team would love to play spoiler, and end their division rivals season. The team that is in the must win situation often plays tense, with heavy pressure on their shoulders. The team with nothing to gain typically plays lose, and brings extra intensity knowing a full offseason looms after the game. All of the Titans metrics on offense and defense get a boost when they are at home in Nashville. This is also true for Titans QB Ryan Tannehill, who has much better home splits. This looks to be Ryan Tannehill’s audition for a new team next season, leaving some extra motivation for him to play well today. Even with several key injuries for the Titans, we like their chances to keep this game competitive. Titans +4.5 for a half unit is our wager.