The winner of this game will be headed to the playoffs! For those bettors who do not like to be on the heavy public side of a bet, you may want to avoid this one. The Texans look to be catching about 70-80% of the tickets and handling. The line has reacted slightly to the heavy public money. The Texans flipped from a +1 point underdog to between a -1 to -2 favorite currently. Back in week 2, the Texans beat the Colts 31-20 in Houston. CJ Stroud and the Texans had no issues against the Colts defense. A lot has changed over the last 16 weeks, but we are going to back the Texans to win this second matchup tonight. Houston looked a bit shaky while their star rookie QB was out with a concussion, but the Texans picked up right where they left off with Stroud's return last week. The Texans defense was extremely impressive.They held Derrick Henry and a strong Titans rushing attack without a touchdown. The Texans defense ranks 2nd in the NFL in rush yards allowed per game, and 2nd in yards per carry (3.3). Houston also allows the 5th fewest explosive rushing plays (runs of 10+ yards). This is bad news for a Colts offense that leans on their rushing attack. The Colts defense ranks below the league average against the run and the pass. While this game looks to be very close to a true 50-50 pick 'em, we are going to back who the metrics suggest is the slightly better overall team. The Texans rank higher in DVOA, our power rankings, and PFF’s power rankings. Houston -1 for a half unit is our wager.