We have an exciting National Championship on the menu tonight! Representing the Big East Conference are the UConn Huskies. Coming out of the Mountain West Conference, fresh off of a Final Four buzzer beater win, we have the San Diego State Aztecs. Based on the eye test, and the data, UConn is the rightful favorite tonight. We will focus specifically on the 7.5 point spread for tonight's championship game.

It is worth noting, UConn playing in this game is a dream scenario for much of the SteadyPicks community. SteadyPicks released an article on January 18th with all of our college basketball futures bets (see HERE). This article featured a half unit bet on UConn at (+2400). This bet stands to gain a +12 unit profit with a UConn win tonight. However, there will be 4 units lost in futures bets. The total gain stands to be +8 units with a UConn win if you played all of the SteadyPicks futures bets. We will provide two write ups. One is for those who have a UConn futures ticket, and the other is for those who don’t. Spoiler alert! The pick is the same either way, but the unit amount and bet structure may differ.

UConn ranks 3rd in adjusted offensive efficiency, and 8th in defensive efficiency. The Huskies are one of the best rebounding teams in the nation. This team is as complete as they come. If there was one flaw with UConn, it would be that their offense has had some turnover problems throughout the year. Turnover issues are primarily what contributed to their 8 losses this season. These turnover troubles have not occurred for UConn throughout the NCAA tournament, but we can’t ignore that they did occur in the larger sample size of the season. 

San Diego State has the 4th ranked adjusted defensive efficiency rating in the nation. Their path to a victory (or cover) is through their defense. On the offensive side of the ball, SDSU ranks outside of the top 60 in offensive efficiency, and outside of the top 200 in effective field goal percentage. San Diego State shot 50% from three point range against FAU, but just 59% from the free throw line. We anticipate both of these metrics to adjust closer to their season averages in tonight’s game. The most notable and respected model in college basketball (KenPom), projects a 5 point win for UConn. The KenPom model valued UConn extremely high throughout the season despite the team's ups and downs. That model is part of the reason why we recommended playing UConn in the futures market. Let’s tip our caps to KenPom! The SteadyPicks model projects UConn winning by 7. While the edge is razor thin, we are going to take the 7.5 points with the underdogs. 

Depending on your odds and your stake, it may be worth exploring hedge opportunities. For those who bet the recommended half unit bet at +2400 odds, the +12 unit gain at stake is significant. With this ticket in particular, our recommendation would be to consider raising your stake on the San Diego State spread to 2-3 units. 

Outcome #1 - UConn wins tonight, but San Diego State covers the +7.5 spread. This scenario would net +12 units from the futures ticket, and an additional +2-3 units from your hedge wager.

Outcome #2 - UConn wins, and covers the -7.5 spread. This scenario would net +12 units from the futures ticket, but lose 2-3 units on your hedge bets. This would leave less profit, but still a gain of +9-10 units.

Outcome #3 - UConn loses. This scenario would lose a half unit on your UConn futures bet, but would come out profitable overall due to the hedge.

We encourage those with futures tickets to consider these scenarios wisely. Run the numbers with your ticket and see what makes most sense for you. Many may opt to let the original bet ride with no hedge, which is also a rational option. Regardless of your scenario, always bet responsibly. Enjoy the national championship!

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