Each year during spring training, our team at SteadyPicks does our best to “value scout” starting pitchers. In doing this, we look for pitchers who may either be overvalued or undervalued based on their current form heading into the season. On our list of “pitchers to fade” (or bet against), Reds starter Connor Overton and Cubs starter Drew Smyly both sit at the top of the list. These two were absolutely horrible in spring training! Connor Overton threw 11.2 innings, gave up 23 runs on 26 hits (6 home runs), and finished with a 15.43 ERA. Drew Smyly gave up 12 runs on 28 hits (6 home runs) in 16.1 innings pitched. Despite the dreadful spring, it’s certainly possible that both of these starters could surprise us and pitch well today. That said, we believe it’s highly unlikely. Rather than betting the full game total at 9, we will opt to exclusively fade these starting pitchers through first 5 innings. Our wager is half unit on 5 runs or more to be scored through the first 5 innings.