This bet won’t be for everyone. Purdue and Alabama both have top 5 offenses, so we understand that some may raise an eyebrow with this under bet. Alabama also plays extremely fast on offense, which is yet another factor that would typically push bettors toward an over. Purdue plays at a slightly slower tempo. Our wager is based more on a system that has been highly profitable over the years. This game will be played at a neutral site in Toronto, Canada. Both teams had to travel, so neither team holds any form of home court advantage. Alabama’s defense has dropped off from last season, but Purdue has an elite defense. The Boilermakers rank 8th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. Bama is going to have a much tougher time scoring with 7 foot 4 Zach Edey in the paint. 161 points is an extremely high total with two nationally ranked teams. Our wager is a half unit on less than 161 points to be scored.

This game will be played on a neutral court in Atlanta at the State Farm Arena. Auburn has one of the best defenses in the nation. Bruce Pearl’s Tigers have held each of their last 5 opponents in the 50’s or 60’s. The only team that has piled on points on Auburn was Baylor in their season opener (scored 88). Indiana’s offense ranks outside of the top 80 in offensive efficiency. The Hoosiers have been awful from three point range, shooting just 25% from beyond the arc. Auburn is one of the best teams in the country at defending the perimeter, so that trend could continue for Indiana’s shooters. The strength of Indiana’s team is on the defensive side of the ball, where they rank inside the top 50 in defensive efficiency. Both teams play fast tempo on offense, but both defenses do a good job of holding their opponents to longer possessions. Our bet is a half unit on under 147.5 total points to be scored.

This matchup features two teams that we have been keeping an extremely close eye on. Each ranks within the top 25 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. Those tend to be metrics that the large majority of past NCAA Championship teams have had in common. One factor to consider is the extremely slow tempo that WIsconsin likes to play at. The Badgers average about 20 seconds per offensive possession, which is one of the slowest in the country. Arizona plays at one of the fastest tempos in the nation at about 14.8 seconds per possession. If Wisconsin can dictate the pace of this game and slow it down, it should bode well with getting 10 points. If Wisconsin is forced to play at Arizona’s pace, this has a blowout written all over it. In Wisconsin’s last two games against Marquette and Michigan State, they have controlled the tempo and won each game by double digits. We will take a half unit flier that Wisconsin can keep this within 10 points with a similar gameplan. A half unit on Wisconsin +10 is our wager.

This is a tough spot for Bryant in terms of scheduling. This is their 3rd consecutive road game. Neither one of these teams has a particularly good offense. However, Bryant has a clear cut edge defensively in this matchup. Phil Martelli Jr.’s team ranks 8th in the nation in opposing effective field goal percentage. Bryant is holding opponents to 25% from beyond the perimeter (6th best in nation), and 44% from inside the three point line (31st in nation). They also rank top 10 nationally in block percentage. The only concern with Bryant is that their offense has looked really bad at times this season. However, Stony Brook doesn’t look to have the offense on paper to be able to pull too far ahead. We will take the +2 points in a game that our model suggests Bryant should be a true pick 'em in.

Colorado State enters this game with a 9-0 record, holding the nation's longest active win streak. The most important thing to know about this Colorado State team is that they have a fantastic offense. The Rams rank 6th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, and 2nd in effective field goal percentage. Head coach Niko Medved has an experienced team, which includes 5 seniors in the starting 5. Saint Mary’s lost a good bulk of their production from last season. They currently rank outside the top 100 in offensive efficiency, and outside of the top 250 in effective field goal percentage. The Gaels are one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the country. They are currently shooting under 60% from the free throw line as a team. We will lay the -5 points with Colorado State. Our stake is a half unit.