Max Holloway has not had a KO/TKO since 2018 against Brian Ortega. It’s important to look at the opponents that Max Holloway has been facing. This includes Arnold Allen, Alexander Volkanovski (twice), Yair Rodriguez, Dustin Poirier, and Frankie Edgar. Prior to those fights, Holloway had 3 straight KO’s against Brian Ortega and Jose Aldo (twice). The Korean Zombie is tough as nails, but he’s been knocked out or TKO’d in 4 of his last 5 losses. It’s never a good sign when a fighter is hinting toward retirement, which the Korean Zombie has been doing all week. Over the course of a 5 round fight, Holloway can impose a lot of damage. Our wager is a half unit on Max to win by KO or TKO.

After about a year and 8 months away from the Octagon, we will see the return of Giga Chikadze. Giga Chikadze lost his last fight by decision to Calvin Kattar. Prior to that, he had 3 straight KO/TKO’s (Edson Barboza, Cub Swanson, and Jamey Simmons). Chikadze also had 6 KO’s prior to joining the UFC. His opponent Alex Caceres has only been knocked out once in his UFC career. The current odds imply about a 71% chance of Giga Chikadze winning the fight (based on -250 price). The (+340) knockout price implies about a 22% probability of Giga winning by KO. We believe his chances of a KO/TKO in this matchup are far greater than 22%. Our wager is a half unit.

It’s important to consider that Taila Santos has never been submitted in her MMA career. She only has two losses, which were both controversial split decisions. However, Erin Blanchfield will be the most dangerous submission artist that Santos has faced. Valentina Shevchenko is one of the best strikers in women's MMA history, but she does not impose the same threat as Blanchfield from a submission point of view. Erin Blanchfield won her last 3 fights by submission. At these (+400) odds, we will take a small flier on the submission prop.

The props in this fight have not been released yet. We recommend splitting this 1.5 unit bet up between the moneyline and a knockout prop once it is released. It’s important to note that Parker Porter is the higher volume striker. If this fight goes to the judges, there’s a good chance Porter walks away with the win. That being said, we are predicting that Junior Tafa will make a big statement in this bout. He’s coming off of a frustrating loss against Mohammed Usman. While Junior Tafa lost that fight, he displayed his dangerous striking power. Usman grappled his way to a decision win, but he was in a world of trouble on the feet with Tafa. Parker Porter was knocked out by Junior Tafa’s older brother (Justin Tafa) earlier this year. Porter has been knocked out in 2 of his 3 UFC losses. Junior Tafa left a lot to be desired in the grappling department, but we aren’t so sure Parker Porter will be able to expose that without getting clipped. Our wager is 1.5 units total on Junior Tafa.