Cubs starting pitcher Kyle Hendricks has been very good on the road this season. He holds a 2.86 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 50.1 road innings pitched. Hendricks hit a stretch in early August where he was allowing more home runs than usual. However, he has not allowed one in back to back outings. Mitch Keller has an ERA approaching 7, and a 1.76 WHIP in the back half of the season. We like the Cubs' edge offensively, as well as their bullpen. Our wager is a half unit on the Cubs moneyline.

This matchup features two very good starting pitchers, and two of the better bullpens in the MLB. Guardians starter Tanner Bibee has not only been one of the best rookie pitchers this season, but he’s been one of the best pitchers overall. Bibee holds a 9-3 record with a 3.01 ERA and 3.63 FIP. Blue Jays starter Chris Bassitt has struggled a bit with the long ball this season, but he’s been good overall. The Blue Jays bullpen has been fantastic since the All Star break. They have the best ERA in the MLB over the last 30 days. The Guardians bullpen is not trailing far behind. Our wager is a half unit on the under.

The Padres have lost all 4 games that Yu Darvish has started this month. Darvish went 3-1 in July, but he actually had a better ERA and WHIP in August. His metrics are solid, but Darvish hasn’t gotten much run support from the Padres offense. Brewers starting pitcher Brandon Woodruff has allowed 5 home runs in 16.2 innings since returning from injury. He holds an impressive 2.89 ERA, but has only pitched 28 innings this season. The Padres bullpen has been better than the Brewers over the last 30 days. Both offenses have been inconsistent. We will take the plus money on the Padres for a half unit. 

Both of these starting pitchers faced the opposing team in their last outing. Logan Webb allowed 4 earned runs in 6 innings in Atlanta in his last start. Spencer Strider pitched 7 shutout innings against the Giants at home in his last start. This time around, the Giants will be the home team. Logan Webb has a 2.11 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 85.1 innings pitched at home in San Francisco this season. Spencer Strider has a 3.31 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 68 innings pitched on the road. While most would say the Braves have the pitching advantage behind Strider, the numbers could make a strong argument the other way. Offensively the Braves have the edge. Atlanta also holds the better bullpen, but not by a wide margin. We are going to take a flier on the home underdogs who are fighting to remain in the wild card race. Our wager is a half unit.

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