This bet covers a Sterling or O’Malley finish, as long as it doesn’t happen within the final 2:30 minutes of the 5th round. Both of these fighters are dangerous in their own rights. Sterling has 6 finishes on his UFC resume (4 submissions, 2 knockouts).O’Malley also has 6 finishes in the UFC octagon including his Contender Series fight (all knockouts). The two most likely outcomes in this fight are an Aljo submission, or an O’Malley knockout. It would be highly surprising to see these two make it all 5 rounds. Our wager is one unit on the fight to be decided within 4.5 rounds.

Chito Vera is coming off of a loss against Cory Sandhagen. Prior to that he had won 4 consecutive fights against Dominick Cruz, Rob Font, Frankie Edgar, and Davey Grant. Vera also has a win against Sean O’Malley, and a controversial loss against Song Yadong. Pedro Munhoz fought Dominick Cruz, Frankie Edgar, and Rob Font, but went 1-2 in those bouts with the only win coming against Rob Font. Chito Vera will have a 2-3 inch height advantage in addition to a 6 inch reach advantage. Vera has been very vocal about his disappointment in his last performance against Cory Sandhagen. We expect him to come out with more urgency in this fight, and to hunt for a finish. Pedro Munhoz has never been knocked out or submitted in his MMA career, so we will opt to play it a bit safer on the moneyline rather than betting the finish.

A few notes to consider in this exciting bantamweight title fight. Sean O’Malley is 4 inches taller. He is also longer, and is 6 years younger than Aljamain Sterling. O’Malley averages 7.4 significant strikes per minute. He has the best striking percentage in the bantamweight division (60.9%), and the highest striking differential in UFC bantamweight history (4.04). O’Malley will have the clear cut striking advantage, while Aljamain Sterling will have a big edge in the wrestling and grappling department. It’s worth considering that Sean O’Malley has had about 11 months to prepare for this fight. We have to believe that over those 11 months, O’Malley has prepared himself to defend Aljo’s takedowns. If he’s unable to do it, it could be a rough night at the office for the Suga Show. However, if Aljo can’t land his takedowns and get O’Malley to the mat, we believe Aljo will be in a world of trouble on the feet. We see a clear path to victory for both fighters. At these (+210) odds, we will opt to side with the underdog.

Amanda Lemos has 8 knockouts in her 15 fight professional MMA career. She’s coming off of an impressive 3rd round TKO against Marina Rodriguez. Zhang Weili will be the toughest opponent Lemos has faced so far. Weili was knocked out by Rose Namajunas back in 2021 via a head kick. Lemos has a 1.1 knockdown average per 15 minutes compared to a 0.3 for Weili. At these (+550) odds, we are inclined to take a small flier on Amanda Lemos to win by KO/TKO.