We are going to side with the road team in this matchup. The Chiefs lost their opener against a very good Detroit Lions team. Today they will face a Jaguars team that is also very talented. The Chiefs will get back the anchor of their defense in Chris Jones, in addition to their top receiving threat Travis Kelce. The QB’s in this matchup (Mahomes & Lawerence), are both gunslingers who will embrace an offensive shootout. Our one concern with Lawrence is his passer rating under pressure. With a clean pocket, Lawrence has some of the best metrics in the NFL. When pressured, his passing metrics drop well below the league average, and he’s been prone to a lot of turnovers. We are going to side with the team that we feel is more likely to play a clean game. Chiefs -3 is our wager.

The Ravens are already banged up one week into the season. Their starting running back JK Dobbins is out for the season. On the offensive line, their starting left tackle (Ronnie Stanley) and their starting center are out. The Ravens defense will be without two of their top secondary players (Marlon Humphrey & Marcus Williams), who have been ruled out for this game. The Bengals did not play well in Cleveland last week, scoring only 3 points. That being said, Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense should have a good opportunity to bounce back against a thin secondary. We will lay the 3 points behind CIncinnati.

This spread feels like an overreaction to week 1. The Dolphins offense looked phenomenal. Keep in mind that was against a poor Chargers secondary. This Patriots defense will be a much tougher task. The Pats defense held Jalen Hurts and the Eagles to only 251 yards of total offense. The Patriots spotted the Eagles an early 16-0 lead, and still had several opportunities to win that game. If the Pats can play a cleaner game on offense today against their division rivals, then we like their chances to pull off the upset. The Dolphins defense looked vulnerable against the run, which is the strength of the Patriots offense. We will take the 3 points with the home divisional dogs, and we recommend a sprinkle on the moneyline as well.

We rarely make a bet purely based on historic trends, but this is a spot where we are going to make an exception and live the result. Since the 2014 season, teams who have lost by 10 or more points in week 1 are 33-16-1 against the spread in week 2. Taking this a step further, when the team who lost by double digits in week 1 is playing on the road in week 2, they are 20-2 against the spread. To go along with these trends, the Seahawks offense torched the Lions defense last season. The Lions defense is improved, but we still expect Geno Smith to have success with all of the dynamic weapons he has on offense. We will grab the 5 points on the underdogs.

We are going to pay a little bit of juice here to get the +3 behind Chicago. The Bears looked awful last week after entering week 1 as a team that was expected to take a big leap this season. We aren’t ready to back off of the Bears just yet. The Buccaneers pulled off an impressive upset in Minnesota last week, but again, it’s week 1. Let’s see how Tampa performs in this spot as a 3 point home favorite against what we still believe is an improved Bears roster. We will take the +3 points with the road team. Our stake is a half unit.