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UFC Fight Night Best Bets 12/17/2022
Drew Dober vs. Bobby Green
Drew Dober Moneyline (-155)
Since Drew Dober's last loss (which was against current lightweight champion Islam Makhachev), he has won 3 straight. Those wins are over Brad Riddell, Terrance McKinney (who is one of the brightest prospects in the division), and Rafael Alves. Bobby Green is coming off of a loss to Islam Makhachev (1st round KO), and a USADA suspension. This is a tough spot to come back against a highly confident Drew Dober. We believe Dober will have the power advantage, and the better ability to finish the fight. Bobby Green is always a threat to have the higher volume, so our hope is that this fight will not hit the scorecards. Our bet is 1 unit on Drew Dober to make it 4 straight wins.
Jake Matthews vs. Matthew Semelsberger
Jack Matthews By Submission (+420)
Jack Matthews By KO/TKO (+430)
Unfortunately, there isn't much value on the Jake Matthews moneyline. We love Matthews in this matchup against Semelsberger, but the oddsmakers seem to like him too. Jake Matthews looked very sharp in a knockout win against Andre Fialho in his last fight. Despite only being 28 years old, Jake Matthews has a ton of UFC experience. He's been fighting on the UFC roster since 2014. Matthews only loss over the last 4 years has come against a top 10 ranked fighter in the welterweight division (Sean Brady). We are going to split our 1 unit into 2 separate bets. A half unit on the submission, and a half unit on the knockout. Matthew Semelsberger showed some holes in his game in his last fight against Alex Morono. Semelsberger has not been finished in his 6 UFC fights, but he was finished 2 times prior to joining the UFC, and once in his amateur career. Our bet is on Jake Matthews to find the submission or the KO.
Rinat Fakhretdinov vs. Bryan Battle
Rinat Fakhretdinov Moneyline (-150)
Bryan Battle has had a tremendous 3-0 start to his UFC career. Battle was an underdog in majority of those fights, just like he is today. This is going to be Battle's toughest test to date against a fighter who looked the part of a potential welterweight contender in his UFC debut. Rinat Fakhretdinov has a 19-1 professional record. His takedown defense and grappling are phenomenal, so Battle will certainly be looking to win this fight with his striking. Rinat should have a significant grappling and wrestling advantage, and we aren't so sure that Battle's striking advantage will be as significant as the numbers suggest. We are going with a 1 unit bet on Rinat Fakhretdinov.
Sean Strickland vs. Jared Cannonier
Sean Strickland Moneyline (-105)
Our angle behind this bet is that we believe Sean Strickland has more paths to a victory. Pending a Jared Cannonier knockout (which is certainly possible), the data suggests Strickland should have the higher volume, the better wrestling/grappling, and the better takedown defense. Strickland was knocked out in his last fight against Alex Pereira. That said, Pereira recently knocked out Israel Adesanya to become the middleweight champion. Strickland getting knocked out had only happened 1 other time in his UFC career (16 fights). We will roll with a half unit bet on Sean Strickland to win.
Cody Brundage vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
Cody Brundage Moneyline (+240)
The bookmakers are giving Cody Brundage roughly a 29% chance to win this fight based on the implied odds at the current price. Brundage looked great in his last fight against Tresean Gore. His striking looked much improved in that fight. Brundage had an impressive submission win in the fight prior. By the numbers, Cody Brundage has the better grappling and takedown defense. Our bet is a half unit on the dog.
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