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UFC 282 Best Bets 12/10/2022
Magomed Ankalaev vs. Jan Blachowicz
Magomed Ankalaev By Finish (-105)
Jan Blachowicz is almost 40 years old, we have nearly a 10 year age gap in this fight. Right out of the gate, this is a strong betting signal toward Ankalaev. There are fighters like Glove Teixeira (43 years old) who seem to defy age, but Jan Blackowicz has shown it a bit in his last 2 fights. He's coming off of a win against Aleksander Rakic, but an ugly loss to Glover Teixeira prior to that. Magomed Ankalaev has a lot of judges decisions in his recent fights (3 out of his last 4 wins have come by decision). However, Ankalaev has plenty of finishes on his resume. We believe he will be better almost anywhere this fight could go. The moneyline price is far too steep, so our bet is on Ankalaev to find the finish. He has 5 rounds to do it.
Paddy Pimblett vs. Jared Gordon
Paddy Pimblett By Finish (-110)
Paddy has scored a finish in all 3 of his UFC fights to this point (2 submissions and 1 knockout). Paddy has found himself in unfavorable situations, but he always seems to weather the storm and find the finish. Jared Gordon has lost 5 times in his professional MMA career, and he was finished in all of 5 of those losses. Our bet is on Paddy to extend the streak to 4 straight finishes.
Bryce Mitchell vs. Ilia Topuria
Bryce Mitchell Moneyline (+128)
In this matchup, we feel it's important to take a close look at each of these fighters most recent fight. Starting with Bryce Mitchell, we all knew he had high level grappling and wrestling skills. However, in his last fight against Edson Barboza, we learned that Mitchell also has effective striking. Bryce Mitchell out-landed Edson Barboza 182-23, and secured all 4 of his takedowns in a dominant unanimous decision win. On the other hand, Ilia Topuria scored a knockout against Jai Herbert in his last fight. That being said, Jai Herbert had Topuria in some trouble in that fight. Striking wise, Jai Herbert had the higher volume. Topuria ultimately landed the big shot, but he showed that he has some flaws. Both Ilia Topuria & Bryce Mitchell have yet to lose a professional bout (Mitchell's losses came as an amateur and in an exhibition). Bryce Mitchell has never been knocked out, and that looks to be Topuria's best path to victory. We will side with the underdog who we feel has more ways to win this fight. This line has come back toward Mitchell since it opened. There looks to be a lot of respected money behind him, keeping this number honest. Our stake is a half unit on the dog.
Darren Till vs. Dricus Du Plessis
Darren Till Moneyline (+155)
We are going to roll with the underdog in this matchup for a few reasons. First, Darren Till has fought significantly tougher opponents throughout his UFC career (Brunson, Whittaker, Gastelum, Masvidal, Woodley, Thompson, Cerrone). It is worth noting, Darren Till has been on the worse end of those fights recently, losing 4 of his last 5 fights. Dricus Du Plessis is an exciting fighter. He's 3-0 in the UFC with 2 knockouts. If you look at the numbers, Dricus looks to have the striking edge in terms of power and volume. However, Till is a great counter puncher, and should have a wrestling/grappling edge. Darren Till has been training with Khamzat Chimaev, and our hope is that we see the best version of him tonight. The implied probability for Till to win at this (+155) moneyline price is roughly 39%. We believe this is closer to a 50-50 fight, so we will back the underdog here.
Chris Curtis vs. Joaquin Buckley
Chris Curtis Moneyline (+145)
This is another fight that we feel is a bit closer to a 50-50 matchup. The (+140) odds imply roughly a 40% win probability for Chris Curtis. The betting market was riding on Chris Curtis heading into his fight against Jack Hermansson (Curtis closed as a favorite in that fight). Curtis took that fight on short notice. This looks to be a good buy low value spot on the underdog. Joaquin Buckley has an impressive highlight reel and a lot of power, but Curtis has looked like the more well rounded fighter. Our stake is a half unit.
Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Dalcha Lungiambula
Edmen Shabazyan By Finish (-110)
This is a big fight for both of these fighters. After a 4-0 start to his UFC career, Edmen Shahbazyan is coming off of 3 consecutive losses (Imavov, Hermansson, Brunson). Dalcha Lungiambula is in the same spot, he's dropped 3 straight and has been finished in his last 2 fights. When Edmen Shahbazyan wins, it's typically by a finish. 3 of his 4 UFC wins have been by finish (2 knockouts and 1 submission). Prior to joining the UFC, Shahbazyan won all of his professional fights by KO/TKO. Our bet is a half unit on Edmen Shahbazyan to find the finish.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Chris Daukaus
Chris Daukaus By KO/TKO In Round 1 (+460)
Chris Daukaus By KO/TKO In Round 2 (+1200)
Chris Daukaus By KO/TKO In Round 3 (+2100)
Chris Daukaus has won 4 fights in the UFC. Out of those 4 wins, 3 of them were round 1 knockouts, with the 4th being a round 2 knockout. It is worth noting, Chris Daukaus is coming off of 2 losses (Lewis & Blaydes). Jairzinho Rozenstruik is coming off of 2 losses as well, he was knocked out in the 1st round in his last fight (Volkov). We will go with 3 separate small bets here, totaling a half unit. A quarter unit on a round 1 KO/TKO, and then we will split the other quarter unit between a round 2 and round 3 KO/TKO.
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