You may be wondering why a 5-7 team would be favored against an 8-2 team. The Lions began the season a miserable 1-6, but have gone 4-1 over their last 5 games. Their only loss during this stretch was to the Bills on Thanksgiving, a game where the Lions led and had a strong opportunity to win late. At home, the Lions are 5-2 against the spread. Their largest loss in Detroit was by 4 points to the Dolphins, which is impressive considering a tough home schedule (Eagles, Commanders, Seahawks, Dolphins, Packers, Bills, & Jaguars). Whenever we dig into a Vikings spread, we like looking at DVOA metrics which are adjusted to the teams strength of schedule. The reason we do this is because the DVOA metrics have been SCREAMING that this Vikings team is overrated. They rank 20th in overall team DVOA, the Vikings are down there with teams like the Falcons, Saints, and Giants. The Vikings let the Jets crawl back from a huge deficit last week and nearly lost the game. We will back the Lions at home here. Our stake is 1 unit.

This bet is based on what we feel is an overreaction to Lamar Jackson not playing in this game. The lookahead line last week (prior to Lamar getting hurt), was Ravens -4. So the question for bettors here is how many points do you feel the drop-off from Lamar Jackson to Tyler Huntley is worth? Dating back to last season, Ravens backup QB Tyler Huntley has played well in Lamar's absence. Last week in relief, Tyler Huntley had efficient passing metrics when he had a clean pocket, but he did struggle a bit when pressured. That being said, if you dig into the Ravens offensive numbers over the last month, the truth is that Lamar Jackson has been struggling a bit. His numbers from the first 4 games have dropped drastically to his most recent 4 games. So while Lamar will certainly be missed today, our hope is that this struggling offense won't be too far off from their previous struggles. Our last point here is that this Ravens team wins behind their defense. Since acquiring Roquan Smith from the Bears, this has been the #1 run defense, and one of the best overall defenses in the league. Kenny Pickett and the Steelers offense have looked good in recent weeks, but this is going to be a much tougher test against Baltimore's defense. Our bet is 1 unit on the Ravens to cover.

This moneyline price has moved to a point where we are going to take the bait. Over the course of this morning, this spread has moved from a consensus Bengals -5.5, to -3.5 or -4 depending on your sportsbook. The respected money seems to like the Browns at anything north of +4. We see no scenario where this game crosses through 3, so if you like the Bengals, now is the time to jump in. This moneyline price sat at (-250) at FanDuel about an hour ago, and we expect some buy back here on the Cincinnati side. Joe Burrow has never beaten the Browns in his young NFL career. Burrow is 0-4 against them, and for whatever reason, the Browns have had the Bengals number. That said, the Bengals run defense is much improved since the last time these two teams met back on Halloween. In addition, Deshaun Watson did not look good in his return last week. Nearly 5% of his throws were rated as turnover worthy plays, which is alarmingly high. Yes the sample size is small (1 game), but that game was against the Texans. Our bet is 1 unit on the Bengals to get the job done today and secure this win at home against their division rivals.

Rather than laying the -3 or -3.5 points, we will opt for the Dolphins moneyline. Simply put, this Chargers defense is absolutely decimated by injuries. They will be missing 2 starting corners, their best pass rusher (Joey Bosa), their best interior lineman against the run, and their star safety (Derwin James). On offense, the Chargers will be missing both starting tackles, and the health of WR Mike Williams remains to be seen. Justin Herbert was not protected last week against the Raiders under these circumstances, and we aren't so sure that this will change tonight. The Dolphins defense has been one of the worst units in the league on the road this season. However, the Dolphins went out and acquired Bradley Chubb to improve the pass rush, and have gotten a bit healthier on that side of the ball. We were eyeing the over in this matchup if we could get at 52 or less, but it's moved beyond that and out of our betting range. There should be a lot of scoring in this game, but defensively, we can't get behind the Chargers stopping this Dolphins offense. For that reason, our bet is on the Dolphins to win.

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