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UFC 281 Best Bets From SteadyPicks
(Adesanya vs. Pereira)
Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira
Under 4.5 Total Rounds (+120)
This bet essentially covers a finish on both sides. If Alex Pereira lands the big knockout shot like many are anticipating, this ticket will cash. That said, we also feel that Israel Adesanya is very live for a finish. While Adesanya's last 4 fights have been what some would call "boring decisions", he does have some impressive finishes on his resume (Costa, Whittaker, Brunson). Alex Pereira has never been in a 5 round fight in the UFC, and he cut a lot of weight for this fight. It will be interesting to see how Pereira looks if this fight hits rounds 3,4,5. Our bet is on this fight to be decided within 4.5 rounds.

Dustin Poirier vs. Michael Chandler
Fight To Start Round 2 (-176)
We really like the value on this prop over at FanDuel. To give you an idea, this same prop is (-250) at DraftKings. While this fight is expected to be a slugfest, we are still dealing with two very high level fighters. While these two will likely have some exchanges early that have us sweating this ticket, both of these guys are tough to finish. In 30 career MMA fights, Michael Chandler has been finished in the 1st round just twice. In 35 career fights for Dustin Poirier, he's been finished in the 1st round twice as well. Neither guy has been finished in the 1st round in the last 3 years. Get ready for a 5 minute sweat if you bet this one, but we like our odds for this fight to make it into the 2nd round. Our stake is one unit.

Dominick Reyes vs. Ryan Spann
Fight Does Not Start Round 3 (-190)
In 9 career UFC fights, Ryan Spann has seen the 3rd round just twice. His last 4 fights have been decided in round 1. Dominick Reyes has not fought in a year and half, so it's tough to forecast what to expect on his side. 3 of his last 4 fights prior to the layoff did not reach the 3rd round. We believe both of these fighters are live for an early finish, so we will opt for a bet on this fight not to start the 3rd round.

Seungwoo Choi vs. Michael Trizano
Seungwoo Choi Moneyline (-164)
Both of these fighters are coming off of back to back losses. In terms of the eye test, Choi looked much better in his two losses. He's coming off of an absolute dog fight against Josh Culibao. Choi had some good moments in that fight, and had a big 3rd round. Despite the loss, Choi displayed his ability to fight 3 strong rounds. Choi absorbed a lot of damage in the first 2 rounds from Culibao. His chin was tested, and it held up. In Choi's fight prior to Josh Culibao, he fell victim to an Alex Caceres submission. On the other side with Michael Trizano, he suffered a bad KO against Lucas Almeida in his last fight. Trizano was a (-225) betting favorite in that fight, and looked completely outmatched. In his fight prior, Trizano was massively out volumed by Hakeem Dawodu and lost unanimously. We believe Choi is a greater threat to land the big shot, and wee see more potential paths to victory for him. For that reason, we will roll with a one unit bet on the Seungwoo Choi moneyline.

Matt Frevola vs. Ottman Azaitar
Ottman Azaitar Moneyline (-160)
(Decision No Bet - Read Write Up)
You can find this bet on FanDuel under "Decision No Bet". If this fight goes to the scorecards, it will be voided and you will get your money back. In 13 professional MMA fights, Ottman Azaitar has only seen a judges scorecard once. He's finished 12 of his 13 fights, and only 2 of those went into the 3rd round. Since joining the UFC, Azaitar has finished both of his two fights with first round knockouts. Simply put, Ottman Azaitar is going to be looking to get Matt Frevola out of here early. Frevola has been knocked out twice in his UFC career, most famously against Terrence McKinney 7 seconds into the fight. Frevola scored a knockout of his own in his last fight. However, Ottman Azaitar has never been finished, and our hope is for that to hold true after this fight.

Matt Frevola vs. Ottman Azaitar
Azaitar By KO/TKO In Round 1 (+320)
Azaitar By KO/TKO In Round 2 or 3 (+460)
Please refer to the write up above to understand why we like these prop bets. We are placing two separate quarter unit props here. The first is on a KO/TKO in round 1 for Ottman Azaitar. The second is on a KO/TKO in either round 2 or 3. We opted to combine rounds 2 & 3, rather than bet them individually. Both options are available at FanDuel. A knockout in any round for Ottman Azaitar will score us a profit. He's finished 10 of his 13 career MMA fights by KO/TKO.

Frankie Edgar vs. Chris Gutierrez
Frankie Edgar Moneyline (+205)
Our desired number to get involved on Frankie Edgar was (+200) or better. That number has not been available all week, until today over at DraftKings. At this (+205) price, the bookmakers are implying Frankie Edgar has roughly a 32% chance to win this fight. Simply put, we believe his chances are greater than that. If you look at these 2 fighters resumes, they aren't comparable. Frankie Edgar has been in the Octagon with the best fighters in the world. Chris Gutierrez has yet to fight a legitimate contender. A lot of experts highlight the dangerous leg kicks that Gutierrez has in his arsenal. However, let's not forget Frankie Edgar has a win against Pedro Munhoz, who also possesses that threat. We are rolling with a half unit bet on the MMA legend Frankie Edgar to get his hand raised one last time. Many bettors are blindly backing Gutierrez based on a stat/trend that has been circulating around the media. When there is an age gap of 10 years or more, the younger fighter wins roughly 69% of the time. Frankie Edgar is 10 years older than Chris Gutierrez, so that technically would apply here. Regardless, we never make bets based on trends, and we are not about to do it here.

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