There are a few factors to consider in this wager. First, it’s December, and this Green Bay home field advantage plays a real factor in these games. We aren’t saying that you should blindly back Green Bay because they are at home tonight, but it’s important to know that Lambeau Field is one of the top home field advantages in the NFL. It’s going to be cold and loud, and these Packers fans are reenergized with playoff hope. The Packers offense has been hovering around 400 yards in four straight games. Jordan Love looks to be getting more comfortable in the offense as the season progresses. This is also the healthiest the Packers defensive injury report has looked all season. Tonight will be the 3rd game for the Chiefs in the last 13 days. The Packers had 10 days of rest to prepare for this game. Green Bay carries strong momentum into this game after back to back wins versus the Chargers and Lions. We will take the +6 points with the home dogs.

We expect to see a lot of scoring in this matchup. Both of these defenses are dealing with key injuries. The Lions are missing starting LB Alex Anzalone, starting safety CJ Gardner-Johnson, a starting cornerback in Emmanuel Mosley, and edge rusher James Houston. The Saints will be without starting cornerback Marshon Lattimore, starting safety Marcus Maye, edge rusher Payton Turner, and defensive end Cam Jordan is listed as questionable. The Lions offense is healthy and had extra time to prepare for this matchup. The Saints are dealing with two injuries at the wide receiver position (Thomas & Shaheed), but their top playmaker Chris Olave is expected to play. Both of these teams' offenses are pass heavy. The Saints pass the ball 61% of their offensive plays, while the Lions pass about 58% of their plays. With two wounded secondaries, these pass heavy metrics bode well for scoring. Our wager is on more than 47 total points to be scored today in the Caesars Superdome.

This is a tough spot for the Philadelphia Eagles. They entered this game coming off of a physical matchup against the Bills where their defense was on the field for 95 snaps. This will be the Eagles 3rd game in 13 days (including an overtime game last week). The 49ers had 10 days of rest to prepare for this game. San Francisco last played on Thanksgiving. They should be healthy and rested for this matchup. The Eagles are dealing with a few key injuries (Goedert, Cunningham, Cox), but have the majority of their core intact for this game. Lane Johnson will return after missing last week's game. The Eagles offensive line will be at full strength. Despite the scheduling that drastically favors the 49ers in today's game, San Francisco also grades out higher in the DVOA metrics both offensively and defensively. We like using DVOA metrics as a resource because they are adjusted to the opponent's strength of schedule. The 49ers have played a lighter schedule than the Eagles to this point. Lastly, San Francisco is 8-0 this season when all of their key offensive players are in the lineup. Their average margin of victory in these games is double digits. This Eagles team has been finding a way to win. Maybe they will do it again today. We will lean on the numbers which strongly sway us to the 49ers side. There is also a revenge aspect for the 49ers today. San Francisco on the moneyline is our wager.

The Lions are coming off of a tough home loss to a division rival on Thanksgiving. Their defense has looked poor in 3 of their last 4 games. The Lions offense has sputtered in back to back games. The 10 day break may have been exactly what Dan Campbell and this Lions team needed in order to regroup. The Saints are coming off of a loss to the Falcons where their offense struggled. Both of the QBs in this game (Derek Carr & Jared Goff) have performed poorly passing under pressure. Their QB ratings are both in the 60's when pressured. The difference is that the Lions defense generates a lot more pressure on opposing QBs. The Saints rank toward the bottom of the league generating pressure. This looks to be a good matchup for Jared Goff. When Goff is not pressured, he has a QB rating of 112. Simply put, if this Lions offense is clicking, we aren’t so confident the Saints offense will be able to keep pace. New Orleans will be with two starting wide receivers (Michael Thomas & Rashid Shaheed). We will lay the -4 points on the road team.

The last time these two teams matched up (NFC Championship), 38 points were scored (31-7). Consider that the 49ers played the majority of that game without a QB. The 49ers offense is fully healthy today, and they rank 1st in the NFL in offensive DVOA. The Eagles defense allowed 34 points to the Bills last week, and played 95 defensive snaps in that game. This 49ers offense can attack on all cylinders, and should be able to have success against the Eagles defense. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles already put up 30+ on this 49ers defense last year. San Francisco added Chase Young, but lost their star safety (Hufunga). With Philly’s offense healthy and playing well, we anticipate the Eagles being able to do their part in this over. It is worth noting that the weather in Philly is currently rainy. However, that rain is expected to slow down or stop around kickoff. The wind is minimal, and it’s a relatively warm day. We saw 71 points scored in a cold downpour in Philly last week. We aren’t going to overthink the weather too much. Our wager is a half unit on more than 47 points to be scored.