Get your popcorn out for this fight. We anticipate an all time classic with arguably the two heaviest hitters in the lightweight division. This should be a high speed car crash, and we are almost always going to side with the underdog in these situations. The odds imply roughly a 44% chance for Justin Gaethje to win this fight. Even though Dustin Poirier won the first matchup back in 2018, we see this as a true 50-50 matchup. Justin Gaethje averages more significant strikes landed per minute, and his knockdown average is slightly higher. Both of these guys are 34 years old, but Dustin Poirier has a lot more mileage on him. A one unit bet on Dustin Poirier to win would net you 0.65 units profit. A one unit bet on Justin Gaethje would net you 1.25 units profit. For us, there is no question which side the value lies on. Our wager is one unit on Justin Gaethje to win, and we can live with the result regardless of how the fight goes.

Gabriel Bonfim is 14-0 in his professional MMA career, with 14 finishes. In his contender series fight he got a first round submission, and followed that up with another first round submission in his UFC debut. Bonfim’s opponent Tevin Giles is a very experienced fighter. Giles has 11 UFC fights to his name, and he’s faced tougher competition. However, Giles has been submitted or knocked out in all 4 of his UFC losses. Trevin Giles has won two straight fights. However, those fights were against Preston Parsons and Louis Cosce who are a combined 1-5 in the UFC. We are comfortable laying the juicy (-200) price on Bonfim to find a finish. Our risk is one unit.

Michael Chiesa has not fought since November 2021, where he lost by unanimous decision against Sean Brady. Chiesa is 2-2 in his last 4 fights, with all of those bouts coming against high level opponents (Dos Anjos, Magny, Luque, Brady). Kevin Holland is also 2-2 in his last 4 fights, coming off of a knockout win against Santiago Ponzinibbio. In terms of striking, Holland will have a clear advantage on the feet. However, our concern with Holland is his 50% takedown defense. He has struggled against high level grapplers such as Brendan Allen (submitted), Derek Brunson (lost by unanimous decision), Marvin Vettori (lost by unanimous decision), and Khamzat Chimaev (submitted). Michael Chiesa is the far better grappler in this matchup. We see a clear path to victory for the underdog. At these (+125) odds, we will take a half unit flier on Michael Chiesa to win.

Darrius Flowers will make his official UFC debut tonight. He won on the contender series back in August 2022, and carries a 4 fight win streak into this bout. Our concern with Flowers is that he has been knocked out or submitted in all 8 of his professional losses. Three of those losses were in boxing, so he only has 5 losses in MMA. On the other side of this matchup is Jake Matthews. While Matthews is still only 28 years old, he has been in the UFC for almost 10 years. He has a ton of high level experience in the UFC octagon. Jake Matthews has lost two of his last three fights, but those losses came against two very good opponents in Matthew Semelsberger and Sean Brady. Jake Matthews had won 6 of his last 7 fights prior and has 6 finishes in his UFC tenure. Our wager is a half unit on Jake Matthews to find a knockout or submission.

Do we think Tony Ferguson should be favored to win this fight? Absolutely not. It’s important to understand why we placed this bet before you tail it. Do we believe he has more than a 24% chance of winning? Yes. We disagree with the implied win probability, and this wager is as simple as that. In order to be a successful bettor, you have to take value when it’s presented. It won’t always work out in the short term, but it will pay off over a larger sample size. Tony Ferguson has lost his last 5 fights, and he didn't look very good against Nate Diaz in his most recent fight. That being said, we encourage you to look at the opponents that Ferguson has lost to during his 5 fight skid. This includes Michael Chandler, Beneil Dariush, Charles Oliveira, and Justin Gaethje. Tony Ferguson was on a 12 fight win streak prior to this skid. He is getting up there in age (39 years old), but Bobby Green is no spring chicken either (36 years old). Green is just 2-4 in his last 6 fights. A head clash with Jared Gordon resulted in a no contest in his most recent fight. We love Bobby Green, but we can’t come to terms with this (-400) price. Our wager is a small quarter unit bet on Tony Ferguson to pull off the upset.