Vicente Luque is coming off of a tough loss to Belal Muhammad in his last fight. However, it's important to look at his complete body of work. Since Luque has entered the UFC, he is 14-4 with his only losses coming to Belal Muhammad, Stephen Thompson, Leon Edwards, and Michael Graves (UFC debut). Those are the losses, but let's also mention some of the wins including Belal Muhammad, Jalin Turner, Bryan Barberena, Randy Brown, and Michael Chiesa. Vicente Luque has a ton of high level experience, and he's never been finished in his UFC career. That's important to know because Geoff Neal's ideal path to victory is a knockout, which has proven to be a tough task against Luque. Neal has lost 2 of his last 3 fights, and his win against Santiago Ponzinibbio was a close split decision. We believe Vicente Luque has more paths to victory, so we will back him tonight. Our bet is 1.5 units.

Despite the (-200) juice, we see good value here. In order for this bet to cash, this fight just needs to make it out of the first round. Jamahal Hill has won his last 2 fights by 1st round KO, and 4 of his 6 UFC fights have ended in round 1. Thiago Santos may not have the same explosion and output he had earlier in his career, but he's still tough as nails. Santos went 5 rounds with Magomed Ankalaev in his last fight, and his last 9 fights have made it into the 2nd round. Within those 9 fights, Santos fought guys like Glover Teixeira, Jon Jones, Jan Blachowicz, and the list goes on. We feel comfortable risking a full unit to net a half unit in this spot.

If you are not familiar with Terrence McKinney, head over to YouTube and watch his 3 UFC fights. All of them ended in the 1st round, so it won't take you much time to do your research. Terrence McKinney has either knocked out his opponent, or nearly knocked him out in each of his fights. He's one of the most exciting and electric young fighters in the UFC. In his last fight against Drew Dober (which McKinney lost), it looked like McKinney had knocked Dober out cold. Somehow, Dober managed to survive and pull off an insane comeback win. We feel confident that very few fighters in this division can stand in front of McKinney for 3 rounds. The reason we are only going with a half unit bet here is because the submission is very live for McKinney as well. Betting the finish is roughly (-400), so that is not an option. Erick Gonzalez was knocked out in his only UFC fight prior to this. We will take our shot here on McKinney to add another big knockout to his highlights.