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UFC Fight Night Best Bets 1/14/2023
Dan Ige vs. Damon Jackson
Dan Ige Moneyline (-125)
Damon Jackson is riding a 4 fight win streak heading into this fight. He’s coming off of an impressive first round finish against a tough opponent in Pat Sabatini. On the other hand, Dan Ige is on a 3 fight losing streak, and has lost 4 of his last 5 overall. However, it’s important to note that Dan Ige’s losses have come against some of the best fighters in the featherweight division (Evloev, Emmett, Jung, Kattar). Damon Jackson has not fought anywhere near the level of competition that Dan Ige has. Jackson's most notable opponent to date has been Ilia Topuria (who knocked him out in round 1). When we dig into the numbers, the grappling/wrestling metrics tilt slightly toward Jackson. On the feet, Dan Ige should have a solid edge with the higher volume and power advantage. Our bet is 1 unit on Dan Ige to win the fight.
Punahele Soriano vs. Roman Kopylov
Punahele Soriano Moneyline (-150)
This matchup features two fighters with big time knockout power, get your popcorn ready for this one! Both bring a 9-2 record into this bout, Roman Kopylov is about an inch taller and has roughly a 3 inch reach advantage. Puna Soriano is a former all state wrestler, but his wins in the UFC have come behind his striking. Puna has a big left hand, and he seems to favor a path of victory behind landing that left hand, rather than grinding his opponent out wrestling. It’s important to note, Roman Kopylov has never been knocked out before, nor has Puna. So while these guys are heavy hitters, neither one of them has seen the worse end of a knockout. The oddsmakers suggest that there’s a strong possibility we see that change tonight, and one of these two will hit the canvas. This fight is (-200) not to go the distance, implying roughly a 66% probability of a finish. Our bet is 1 unit on Puna to win the fight.
Javid Bashrat vs. Mateus Mendonca
Javid Bashrat By Finish (+130)
Both of these fighters carry perfect professional records into this bout. Javid Basharat is 2-0 in the UFC, with both wins coming by unanimous decision. Matheus Mendonca earned a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series with a 1st round finish back in September. Mendonca has only fought one time in the last 2 years, and many MMA analysts have questioned the level of competition in route to his 10-0 record. This is a massive jump up in competition for Matheus Mendonca, and we aren't so confident that he is going to pass this test. Prior to being signed by the UFC, Javid Basharat finished every single one of his opponents throughout his 11 pro fights. He’s a threat for a knockout or submission, and at this (+130) price, we are going with a full unit on Javid Basharat to find a finish.
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