Iowa State had a lot of turnover from last season on both sides of the ball. Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell has done a really impressive job replacing that talent. The Iowa State defense has looked dominant, they rank top 10 in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. Both teams have a strong running game, but our numbers slightly favor Iowa State QB Hunter Dekkers over Baylor QB Blake Shapen. Between the defensive edge, home field, and a slight edge at QB, we feel comfortable laying the 2.5 points behind Iowa State. Our bet is one unit.

This game has the biggest discrepancy from where our numbers suggest this line should be, and where the line actually sits. Auburn got crushed at home by Penn State last week (41-12). However, this seems like a great buy low spot to an overreaction of a loss against a very good Penn State team. Missouri struggles defending the run, which is a bad recipe against a talented Auburn offensive line and running game. Auburn was not able to get their run game going against Penn State due to falling behind early, but this should be a completely different game script today. We will lay the 7 points with the home team and look for a double digit win.

Texas is 3-0 against the spread to start the season. On the defensive side of the ball, Texas seems to have made significant improvement from last season. Texas is currently top 20 in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. Remember, it's always important to look at data that is adjusted to an opponents strength of schedule. This is key with college sports! For Texas Tech, their defense has been really impressive as well. They held up against a very good NC State offense last week. It's been reported that nearly 90% of the public money and tickets are on Texas. This is a liability game for the books, and in these liability spots, it's often better to side with books than the public. We will fade all that public money and roll with a half unit bet on Texas Tech to cover.

North Carolina is 3-0, but let's not forget that Appalachian State put up 61 points on their defense. Georgia State (who just got smoked by Coastal Carolina), played North Carolina tough and lost by just one score. UNC has an exciting QB and an electric offense, but Notre Dame has a solid edge on the defensive side of the ball. They held Ohio State to 21 points on the road. Notre Dame should be able to keep Drake Maye and the UNC offense off of the field with long sustainable drives. We will grab the points with the road dogs for a half unit.

Michigan State struggled in Washington last week against a strong pass attack. This is a much better matchup against a Minnesota team that has more of a run heavy offense. Michigan State is much better upfront than they are in their secondary. Minnesota lost their best WR for the season (Chris Autman-Bell). This is a buy low on Michigan State, and a sell high on Minnesota. Our numbers suggest this game should be a pick em, so we will gladly take the 3 points with the home dogs. Our bet is a half unit.

We were going to stay off of this game unless a +7 appeared. This morning, that +7 became available. Washington State went into Wisconsin and won a tough road game a couple weeks back, and then followed that up with a strong offensive performance against Colorado State. Oregon had a big win against BYU, but our numbers suggest they are being a bit overvalued here. We will take the 7 points with the home dogs.

Our numbers suggest the wrong team is favored here. Texas A&M spent a lot of money in recruits, but those players are not in a position of impact yet. Arkansas has been better on both sides of the ball. Arkansas won this matchup as a dog last year, and we like their odds to win again today. If you find an appealing moneyline price, don't be afraid to let the points go.

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