Too many points to pass up here in a home divisional game for the Dolphins. The Bills have looked borderline unbeatable through the first 2 games. However, they bring a ton of injuries into this game. Both of their starting safeties are out, Ed Oliver is out, corners Tre'Davious White and Dane Jackson are also out. The Bills are expected to have a lot of fans in this stadium, but Miami is still a tough place to play with the Florida humidity. The Dolphins offense has looked capable of going toe to toe in a shootout with any team in the league. This is a big test for Tua and the Dolphins. Our bet is one unit on the home dogs with the points.

We held out all week waiting for a +3 on the Patriots, and we were able to grab it this morning. Pointsbet is currently the only book offering the +3, and it is juiced a bit, but we are still going to take it. The Ravens are banged up on both sides of the ball. Their star left tackle Ronnie Stanley is out, and Lamar Jackson has struggled against good defenses without Stanley protecting his blind side. The Ravens secondary (which the Dolphins torched last week), have 4 players who are listed as questionable or out. Historically speaking, getting Bill Belichick as a home dog has been a highly profitable spot. The Patriots have also been very good in home openers under Belichick. Ravens running back JK Dobbins is expected to make his season debut today, but it would be surprising to see him get more than 10-15 touches. We are grabbing the points with the home dogs for one unit.

Here we are backing the Buccaneers defense. Our numbers suggest the Bucs defense has a solid edge over the Packers defense. The Packers run defense and tackling grades are very poor, which could be a bad recipe against the Bucs running backs. Both of these offenses are thin at the wide receiver position, and both have a strong running game. For us, the bet comes down to the defensive side of the ball, and the game being played in Tampa. Our bet is one unit on the Bucs to win behind their elite defense.

We like this as a buy low spot on the Titans, who lost 41-7 on Monday Night Football to the Bills. The Raiders are bringing a decent amount of injuries into this game including Hunter Renfrow, Josh Jacobs (questionable), Denzel Perryman, and more. The Titans lost their left tackle Taylor Lewan for the season, but aside from that, they are in decent health heading into this game. This Titans team was the top seed in the AFC last season, and a big part of that was due to their 7-2 record at home in Nashville. In a coin flip game, we will take the 2 points with the home team. Our bet is a half unit.

This Falcons team quietly has some nice weapons on offense with players like Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Cordarrelle Patterson. Marcus Mariota has done a good job running the offense, look for him to get Kyle Pitts more involved this week. Offensively, our numbers favor the Falcons to Geno Smith and the Seahawks. On the defensive side of the ball, the Falcons are top 10 in the NFL in pass coverage metrics, and top 15 in tackling, run defense, and special teams. Our point here is that the Falcons aren't nearly as bad as the public makes them out to be. Seattle is a tough place to play with the 12's, but we are going with a half unit bet on who we feel is the better overall team.

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