We want to start this write up by saying the late line move from -7 to -6.5 is a bit alarming. There seems to be some sharp money that likes the Jets at +7 or better. In addition to that, the Ravens will be a huge public bet today. All this being said, we are still going to lay the -6.5 on the Ravens. The Ravens will be going against 37 year old Joe Flacco, who Ravens coach John Harbaugh knows very well. The Jets have a banged up offensive line, and had one one of the leagues worst defenses last season. On the Ravens side, Lamar Jackson is healthy. In addition to that, the Ravens defense which was decimated last season, is just about back at full strength. Even if the Jets defense is improved, we still don't see their offense being able to keep pace with a healthy Ravens team. Our bet is one unit on the Ravens to win by at least a touchdown.

We held out for weeks hoping to get a +7 on the Steelers, and the market finally gave it to us. The public is high on the Bengals after their Super Bowl run last season, and with good reason. However, laying 7 points in a week 1 divisional game is a bit too steep for us. This Steelers offense should be improved from last season with Mitch Trubisky leading the charge. Trubisky is an athletic dual threat QB that had a lot of positive moments throughout his time with the Bears. The Steelers look to have a stout defense, and an elite pass rush. We will take the 7 points with the road divisional dogs. Our bet is one unit.

You could make a strong argument that no team in the NFL improved their roster more in the offseason than the Eagles did. They lacked playmakers on offense, but brought in an elite wide receiver in AJ Brown. The Eagles also added several impactful defensive players via free agency and the draft. The Lions will be healthy heading into this game. This Lions team was decimated with injuries right out of the gate in week 1 last season. All of that lost talent will be available today. However, the Eagles should be a bit better on both sides of the ball, and they rolled the Lions 44-6 in Detroit last season. We don't love the steamed line, so will opt for the best number in market on the moneyline. Our bet is one unit. Go birds!

It's important to note that historically, Bill Belichick has done extremely well against rookie head coaches. Belichick is 53-17 straight up against rookie head coaches since he began coaching the Patriots. However, Belichick does have a losing record in Miami in his tenure with the Patriots. For whatever reason, he seems to struggle down in South Beach. This Dolphins team brought in a ton of talent in the offseason including Tyreek Hill, and revamped their offensive line by adding Terron Armstead. Our numbers suggest this spread should be exactly where it is at -3.5. Rather than laying the hook, we will opt for the moneyline. Our bet is one unit on the more talented football team to win.

This Titans team was trending in the wrong direction toward the backend of last season. In the offseason, they lost their best wide receiver in AJ Brown, and recently lost one of their best defensive players for the season (Harold Landry). On the Giants side, they have a healthy Saquon Barkley, an improved offensive line, and an offensive minded head coach in Brain Daboll. We will take the +5.5 with Giants and look for them to be able to keep this game competitive.

This is one of those spots where our data does not support the line movement. This line opened Chiefs -3 and has since moved all the way to Chiefs -6.5. Not much has changed at the skill positions, which is what would typically be the reason for a line move like this season. Simply put, this is too many points of us to pass up on the home team. The Cardinals will not have Deandre Hopkins, but the Chiefs will also be adjusting to life without Tyreek Hill. Our bet is a half unit on the home dogs to cover +6.5.

It's important to know that in recent history, Iowa State has not been able to win this game. Iowa State has lost 6 straight to Iowa. However, this is an interesting spot today. Iowa looked terrible offensively last week. They failed to score a touchdown against South Dakota State, and had just 166 total yards of offense. Iowa State on the other hand looked good, especially on the offensive side of the ball. This should be a tight game that could go either way. We will take the points with the dogs for one unit.

Our numbers suggest this game should be a true pick em, so we will gladly grab the 4 points with the road dogs. Texas Tech's starting QB is out for this game. Backup sophomore Donovan Smith lit it up when he came in relief last week. However, this will be a much tougher test for him than the Murray State defense was. If you're looking for a live dog, look no further than Houston. You should be able to get around (+150) on the moneyline.

Prior to Florida's win last week against Utah, we had the look ahead line on this game at Florida -3. The line opened Florida -3.5, but has since moved all the way to -6 after the win against Utah. Let's not forget that Utah was in prime position to win that game. Utah's QB made a poor mistake on 2nd and goal and threw an interception. Had Utah of won, we firmly believe this line would have been between 2.5 and 3.5. For those reasons, we will take the inflated +6, and fade the heavy public money. Our bet is a half unit.

The line movement in this game is a bit concerning, which is why we are opting for just a half unit play here. However, USC looked very impressive on both sides of the ball last week against Rice. Their QB Caleb Williams went 19/22 and looked very comfortable. Lincoln Riley has playmakers on both sides of the ball, the defense had 4 interceptions last week. Stanford has a lot of experienced upperclassman, but USC should have an edge on both sides of the ball. We will lay the 8.5 points and look for a double digit win.

This bet can be found on FanDuel under "Double Chance". Khamzat Chimaev has finished his opponent inside the distance in 4 of his 5 UFC fights. He got a finish in all of his fights prior to joining the UFC. Simply put, Khamzat is live for the submission or the knockout, and this double chance bet covers both. Kevin Holland has been finished by Kyle Daukaus (ruled a no contest), and by Brendan Allen. Holland's last 3 fights have failed to make it into the 3rd round. Our bet is on Khamzat to win this fight by finish.

FanDuel is the only book currently offering props on this fight. Our goal here is to get ahead of some of these numbers. We like this fight to be decided within 3 rounds, this is a great price on this time prop. Our bet is one unit.

This bet is a fade on Red Sox starting pitcher Brayan Bello. The 23 year old has struggled in his first season in the big leagues. Bello has a road ERA of 8.31, although the sample size is limited. The Red Sox are 1-7 in the games Brayan Bello has pitched in this season. For the Orioles, their starter Austin Voth doesn't have overly impressive numbers. Voth pitched in relief for a good chunk of the season. The Orioles edge lies within their bullpen, which is significantly better than the Red Sox bullpen. The Orioles are fighting for a wild card spot, we will look for them to get a win tonight and stay right in the mix. Our bet is one unit on the moneyline.

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