The last week of the regular season is always an interesting one from a betting perspective. A lot of bets today will be narrative driven, based on teams that “need to win”, or that have “nothing to play for”. We put those phrases in quotes because you're going to hear them all over the media today. At SteadyPicks, we are not going to base our bets around any narratives. Instead, we will look for opportunities to take advantage of these narratives. In this matchup, we have an interesting situation. The Packers have a playoff berth on the line with a win, whereas there’s a very strong possibility that the Lions will already be eliminated prior to kickoff. From a market standpoint, many betting analysts believe this line will move one way or the other based on the outcome of the Rams vs. Seahawks game. That being said, the data won’t change based on those outcomes, and we feel very comfortable getting 5 points in this matchup. The Packers defense ranks 31st in the league in adjusted run defense. The Lions have a fantastic run blocking offensive line, and 2 good running backs in Jamaal Williams & DeAndre Swift. They should be able to take advantage of this matchup and move the ball on the ground. The Lions passing attack has also been great down the stretch, they rank top 5 in the NFL in the overall pass DVOA metrics. The Packers passing attack ranks 15th in this metric. Green Bay has one of the strongest home field advantages in the NFL, especially during these winter months. However, 5 points is too many for us to pass up. Our bet is a half unit on the road divisional dogs to cover. 

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