It's typically hard to find value in these heavily bet primetime games. You will see a lot of respected sports bettors staying far away from this National Championship matchup. Instead, these bettors will be looking to attack markets that are being overlooked tonight. Since it is the National Championship, we feel obligated to provide a pick with or without an edge. Our two primary College Football models both show Georgia winning this game by north of 13 points. Outside of the SteadyPicks data, we really like to look at adjusted efficiency metrics, especially in college sports. The reason for this is because these teams play drastically different strengths of schedule based on their conference (SEC vs. Big 12). The adjusted defensive efficiency metrics (from Football Outsiders) show Georgia as the #1 overall defense in the nation. TCU’s defense ranks 19th in adjusted defensive efficiency. On offense, Georgia ranks 4th in overall adjusted offensive efficiency, with TCU ranking 12th. TCU may have an edge at the Quarterback position with Max Duggan, but it’s important to note that TCU's offense generates a lot of their points on big plays. Those big plays are going to be much tougher to come by against the nation's top defense. TCU did drop 51 points on a very good Michigan defense. However, Michigan's QB threw two pick 6's in that game, and Michigan continuously put the TCU offense in favorable situations. Another key point for us was looking back at the SEC championship game, where LSU closed as a 17.5 point dog against Georgia (on a neutral site). Our data suggests that LSU is better than TCU, yet why are we only laying 13 points here? Keep in mind, the SEC Championship was played in the state of Georgia, but at a neutral site nonetheless. We are going to back the better overall team tonight and look for them to win by north of 13 points. 1 unit only, as it’s very tough to find value in these Championship matchups. Enjoy the game everyone!

Remember, all picks are available 100% free! Simply head to the "Sign Up" page and join the SteadyPicks team.