As much as we would love to have big plays for both Elite 8 games today, this is one of those rare occasions where we honestly cannot find an angle worth betting on either game. Our mission here at SteadyPicks is to do our best to help sports bettors make smarter wagers. A large part of making smart wagers is knowing when to lay off of a game, and to just enjoy it as a fan. With no firm angle on either side of these games today, that is what we recommend doing here. That said, for those who refuse to sit back and enjoy these games with no action, here is one small play to consider. As good as Miami looked while knocking off #1 seed Houston, this is the only remaining team that we believe has a legitimate downfall. The Miami defense ranks outside of the top 100 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Miami ranks 240th nationally defending inside the perimeter. Their opponents are shooting over 51% from the field inside the arc. The Texas Longhorns offense is fantastic inside the perimeter (39th nationally in two point percentage). Simply put, Texas is a tough matchup for a mediocre defense. This Texas group is very well balanced, they rank 15th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and 10th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Our only real concern with the Longhorns is their rebounding metrics. Texas ranks 191st in offensive rebounding, and 218th in defensive rebounding. Miami is a decent offensive rebounding team, but the discrepancy isn’t large enough to scare us off of Texas. It’s worth noting, no team in the last 20 years that ranked outside of the top 22 in adjusted defensive efficiency has won the NCAA tournament. Not only is Miami outside of that threshold, but they are far outside of it. We will look for the better overall team to prevail here, and win by 4 points or more. Our wager is a half unit only.

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