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One Week 12 College Football Bet To Consider Placing Early
TCU @ Baylor 12:00pm
TCU -2.5 (-110)
Before making this bet, it's important to know that TCU is expected to be a heavy public bet this week. The early action is showing roughly 70-85% of tickets coming in on the TCU spread and moneyline. Typically, we don't like to be on the public side of these heavily bet games. However, our goal here is to try to get in front of this number before it moves. We backed TCU last week against Texas. Despite TCU being a heavy public bet, they won the game outright as a 7 point underdog. On the flip side, Baylor lost 31-3 at home to Kansas State last weekend. Baylor had a promising defense just a few weeks ago, but that defense has taken a significant turn for the worst. TCU has two regular season games remaining to complete their undefeated season. They have this game at Baylor, and then a home game against a very tough Iowa State defense. With the current betting spread at -2.5, it seems like the books are calling for this to be the upset spot for TCU. It will be very interesting to monitor this line throughout the rest of the week. If this line moves to or through the key number of 3 by Saturday, we will feel great about this ticket. If this line closes at -2.5 or moves in Baylor's direction, it would signal a pretty sharp reverse line movement on the public money. We recommend monitoring this line very closely, but our goal is to beat the 3 by betting this early. In terms of the matchup, our numbers suggest Baylor still has the edge on defense. TCU has the edge on offense. TCU has the more impressive wins, and a lot more to play for in this game. Our stake is one unit for now.
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