This +15.5 spread feels like slightly too many points to give this talented Hofstra team. Hofstra coach Speedy Claxton returned the majority of his key players from last year's 25 win team. This team shoots the three ball very well (top 50 in nation). Hofstra is scoring at almost 55% from the field inside the three point line. They are also one of the best free throw shooting teams in the nation (81% as a team). Defensively, Hofstra isn’t great, but they are decent. Duke is coming off of a blowout win against Charlotte, but had lost two straight to Arkansas and Georgia Tech prio to that. Duke’s defense looked vulnerable in those games. It’s a true home game for Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium. The crowd may give their defense a boost, but 15.5 points is simply too many for us to pass up. Our model suggests this number should be sitting around 12.5, signaling a 3 point edge. Hofstra +15.5 is our wager.