Game 1 of the NBA Finals will tip off in the mile high city of Denver tonight. A few notes worth considering in this matchup. The Nuggets are a perfect 8-0 at home this postseason (5-3 ATS). The Heat are an impressive 6-4 on the road (7-3 ATS). Looking at each team's performances in game 1’s this postseason, both teams are 3-0. The Nuggets played all three in Denver, where they beat the Timberwolves by 29, the Suns by 18, and the Lakers by 6 (had a 20+ point second half lead). Miami went into Milwaukee as a 9 point road underdog and won outright, followed by winning in New York as a 4 point underdog, and then winning in Boston as a 8.5 point dog.

In terms of the Nuggets home court advantage, the elevation in Denver has been a tough adjustment for opposing teams. For those who question how significant this home court edge is, we encourage you to do some digging. Notable players such as Shaquille O’Neal, LeBron James, Anthony Edwards, and Paul George have all detailed what it’s like to play in Denver. Shaq is famously quoted for saying he used to “foul shave” in Denver just to get a rest. LeBron was asked if the myth is real during the Lakers vs. Nuggets series, and was quoted saying “Yeah it’s real, you get tired a lot faster” (article HERE). A study was also done by Michael J. Lopez, who is the director of data & analytics for the NFL. He wanted to determine the most significant home court advantage in all of North American sports (see HERE). The Nuggets landed at #1 overall across the NFL, NBA. MLB, and NHL.

Historically speaking, teams coming off of a game 7 tend to struggle in game 1 of the following series. Over the last 30 years, teams have below a 40% win and cover rate in this spot. This has occurred just twice in the 2023 postseason. The Warriors played a game 7 against the Kings, and lost outright to the Lakers in game 1 of the following series (as 5 point home favorites). In the Eastern Conference finals, the Celtics played the Heat (in Boston) coming off of a game 7 against the Sixers. The Celtics lost that game outright as 8.5 point home favorites. Since 2005, the betting favorite in game 1 has gone 15-3 against the spread (83%). There is also a significant rest discrepancy here in game 1. The Nuggets have had 10 days off, compared to 2 days off for the Heat. Some may argue that there may be a rust factor with such a long layoff. However, it’s hard to find relevant data for the rust vs. rest debate. We are going to lay the 8.5 points with the Nuggets. Our wager is one unit. 

All picks are available 100% free! Simply head to the "Sign Up" page and join the SteadyPicks team.