As bad as the Lions have been this season, they've actually played well at home. The Lions are 2-1 against the spread at home (1-2 straight up). In those 3 games, they lost to the 1st place Eagles by 3, beat the Washington Commanders by 9, and lost to the Seahawks by 3. Nobody has blown this team out at home, and we don't expect the Dolphins to do it today. This Lions defense is very bad, but look for the return of DeAndre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown to give them a boost on offense. The Dolphins have a ton of public money behind them today, especially on the moneyline. This is one of the most lopsided splits of the day. We will fade all that public money, and look for the Lions to keep this game tight. Our bet is one unit on the Lions +4.

This is one of those games that we are going to ignore the market and money splits, and just focus on our data. Our numbers suggest these two teams are far apart on both sides of the ball. The Cardinals defense made some plays last week against the Saints, but they grade poorly in nearly every defensive metric other than defensive TD's (thanks to Andy Dalton). The Vikings have a very stout run defense, and strong pass rush. They aren't great in pass coverage, but Kyler Murray has yet to prove he can exploit a defense through the air this season. The Vikings had a bye last week, giving them 2 weeks to prepare for this game. We will lay the 3 points over at PointsBet. Many other books have this line at -3.5, so be sure to shop around and grab the best number. Our bet is one unit.

We like this as a buy low on the Pats, and a sell high on the Jets. The Patriots looked terrible on Monday Night, losing to the Bears by double digits as -8.5 point favorites. The Jets have managed a 5-2 record behind their defense, but they suffered a key loss in emerging star Breece Hall last week. Hall was responsible for the majority of the explosive plays for this Jets offense, so this will be a different look today without him. The Patriots have a strong rushing offense, which happens to be is the weakest part of this talented Jets defense. In terms of these QB's, Mac Jones has not played well this season. However, we trust his body of work more than Zach Wilson who has yet to prove he can be an efficient passer in the NFL. In terms of coaching, we love Belichick after an ugly loss. Our bet is one unit on the Patriots moneyline.

This will be the first time in Aaron Rodgers career that he will be a double digit underdog. Simply put, this is unfamiliar territory for all bettors. Our numbers suggest this spread should be roughly 9.5 to 10 points, so we will take our chances with the 11 points. Despite the poor record, the Packers still have a solid pass rush and some talented players in their secondary. Their offense has a lot of young players who should be getting more comfortable in the offense as the season progresses. We will look for Aaron Rodgers to make the sportsbooks pay tonight for this disrespectful spread. Our bet is one unit.

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