Kansas State brings a key injury into this game at the QB position. Adrian Martinez is being labeled as a true game time decision. For us, we have this matchup as a true 50-50 pick em. Kansas State's defense got exposed a bit by TCU last week. We've got Oklahoma State ranked slightly higher in our power rankings. We will back Mike Gundy in a 50-50 game to pull out the win. Our bet one unit on Oklahoma State +2.

The edge for Baylor in this matchup lies within the trenches. They have notably better metrics on the offensive and defensive line. However, our bigger concern here with Texas Tech comes in the betting market. This is one of the most lopsided ticket/money splits of the day. The public money is all over Texas Tech. This has become a bit of a liability game for bookmakers, yet they have not adjusted the line accordingly. This line opened -2.5 at most books and has either remained frozen there, or moved to -2. We like having this reverse line movement in our favor. We also like being on the side of the bookmakers rather than the public. For us, Baylor +2 is the bet.

Let us be clear in saying that this Ohio State team is an absolute power house! We've got them ranked #1 in our power rankings. This team is complete, and does not really have a notable weak spot on either side of the ball. The only metric we could find that Ohio State does not have an elite grade in is pass protection. However, they have a Heisman hopeful QB in C.J. Stroud who covers up very well for any issues on the offensive line. 

For us, betting this game has nothing to do with how good Ohio State is. The angle on our bet is the inflated numbers that heavily bet teams like Ohio State and Alabama tend to carry. Our model suggests this spread should be under 14 points, as do many of the other well respected college football data resources. Ohio State has blown out their opponent and covered the spread in 5 straight games. It's reported that roughly 70% of early tickets are on Ohio State. So while Ohio State is catching the greater volume of tickets/bets, the larger wagers are coming in on Penn State, which is driving this line down.

In terms of the matchup, Penn State has 2 defensive metrics that they are elite in. Pass rush, and pass coverage. We mentioned earlier that the one slight weakness on Ohio State is their pass protection. Penn State has the perfect ingredients to trip this explosive Ohio State offense up a bit. Penn State also has strong rushing offense led by freshman phenom Nick Singleton. It will be key for Penn State to avoid getting behind big early so they can lean on this rushing attack. It will be a wild environment in University Park. This is the game of the year for Penn State. It's also a big game for their coach James Franklin who has yet to deliver this program the big win they've been seeking. Our bet is 1.5 units on Penn State to keep this game within the number.

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