Here we are going to fade all the public Dolphins money, and roll with the home divisional dogs. At SteadyPicks, we check many different resources to get a true feel of the market splits on each game. Across the board, nearly every sportsbook is reporting lopsided action on the Dolphins. Some books are reporting up to 70-80% of the tickets and money on the Dolphins. Despite all that public money, many books have started to move this line toward the Jets. The Dolphins bring a ton of significant injuries into this game. At the time of this writing, we aren't sure who is officially in and out. Regardless, we feel comfortable locking in a +3.5. Our numbers make a strong argument that Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed are the best corner duo in the NFL right now. These guys have allowed 1 total touchdown between the 2 of them, and the Jets safety could be blamed for that lone TD. Give us the points with the home dogs. Our bet is one unit.

Simply put, this is a bad matchup for the Rams. The Cowboys have an elite pass rush, and the Rams have the lowest pass protection grade in the NFL. Matthew Stafford is turning the ball over and getting sacked at career high rates. If you take the names away and just look at the numbers, Cooper Rush has been playing better football than Matthew Stafford. In addition to having an elite pass rush, the Cowboys defense has been very good in coverage as well. The weakness on this Cowboys defense has been defending the run. However, running the football has been a struggle for the Rams offense. If the Rams cannot get their run game going, this could be a long day for Matthew Stafford. We will take the 5.5 points with the road dogs.

This bet comes down to getting the hook on a team that our numbers suggest has a much better offense. It's no secret that the Lions defense has been poor this season. The Lions are a bottom 3 rush defense in the league, and running the football is the strength of this Patriots team. However, let's not ignore the flip side of this. The Lions are also one of the best teams at running the football, and the Patriots are bottom 5 in the NFL at stopping the run. This matchup features two very good rushing offenses, and 2 very bad rushing defenses. The Patriots will be rolling out a 3rd string QB. The Lions have a long list of injuries on the offensive side of the ball, but a good chunk of them are expected to go today. We will grab the +3.5 points behind the better offense. We will look for the Lions to win this game outright, or keep it within a field goal. Our bet is a half unit.

This is a tough matchup for the Chargers today. They travel across country, and carry significant injuries into this game. Our bigger concern with the Chargers than the injuries is their poor run defense. Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, and a top 5 offensive line are going to be a handful for the Chargers. Justin Herbert is missing his star left tackle and his safety blanket in Keenan Allen. The Browns are expected to have all of their key defensive players in the lineup. We will take the 2 points with the home team and look for them to win this game outright.

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