The Eagles will carry 3 key injuries into this game. MVP candidate Jalen Hurts is listed as doubtful, star right tackle Lane Johnson is out, and slot corner Avonte Maddox is also out. The good news for the Eagles is that they have a very good backup QB in Gardner Minshew. The Eagles offense scored 34 points in Dallas last week with Minshew leading the charge. The Saints carry a lot of injuries into this game as well. Their top CB Marshon Lattimore is questionable, their starting safety Marcus Maye is out, and their promising young WR Chris Olave is questionable. The Saints other 2 starting WRs Michael Thomas & Jarvis Landry remain out. In terms of playoff chances, the Saints have roughly a 1% chance to make the postseason. It will be interesting to monitor how motivated the Saints are to bring some of their young core players back at less than 100% health. Regardless, we like this matchup for the Eagles. The Saints offense struggles in pass protection, and Andy Dalton has been prone to turning the ball over when pressured. The Eagles have an elite pass rush, and forces a lot of turnovers. The Eagles rank higher on both sides of the ball in nearly every category. With a win, the Eagles can lock up the division and the #1 seed. We like their chances to get the job done at home, and to do it by 6 points or more. Our stake is 1 unit.

A few key notes in this game. The first is the line movement. This line opened between Ravens -3 and Ravens -6.5 depending on your book. The 6.5’s we imagine were based on Lamar Jackson’s potential return. However, as his status quickly became cloudy, this line moved to a consensus -3. As the week progressed and it became certain that Lamar Jackson would not play, this line fell through the key number of 3. The line now sits between 2 and 2.5. Both of these defenses are playing very well heading into this game, but our data suggests the Ravens unit is slightly better. Since acquiring Roquan Smith from the Bears, the Ravens defense has allowed just 12.7 points per game. These Ravens have not lost a home game since October 2nd. Their only 2 home losses came against the Dolphins & Bills early in the season. In both of those games the Ravens had a big lead, but their defense collapsed late. Their defense was banged up at the time, and did not have Roquan Smith. The Steelers offense has looked better in the back half of the season. Najee Harris has turned things around, but our concern is that the Steelers offensive line still grades poorly in run blocking. Stuffing the run is the Ravens specialty, so we imagine Kenny Pickett is going to have to beat the Ravens with his arm. The Ravens offense got a huge boost with running back JK Dobbins returning. Dobbins looks to be healthy and in great form. Tyler Huntley is a capable backup QB. His numbers over the last 2 seasons grade out better than several current starting QBs across the league. We will look for the Ravens to win this game behind their defense and rushing attack. These division rivalry games between Pittsburgh and Baltimore are always competitive and physical games. Our bet is 1 unit on the home team to cover. In terms of playoff implications, it’s worth noting that the Bengals are currently underdogs against the Bills this week. If the Ravens win this game, and the Bengals lose, these teams will play in Week 18 for the AFC North Division title.

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