We have an exciting matchup on Monday Night Football featuring 2 AFC teams with Super Bowl aspirations. When you break down the numbers on these teams, they have a lot in common. Both offenses pile on points in slightly different ways, but their weaknesses on offense are similar. Both offensive lines struggle in pass protection and in run blocking. The Bengals rank bottom 3 in the NFL in pass protection, and just lost their starting right tackle La'el Collins. The Bills offensive line ranks bottom 5 in run blocking. It is worth noting, the Bills rushing attack has been much better in recent weeks. However, there is data that suggests the Bills recent surge is more about the playmaking of the RBs (Cook & Singletary), and less about the actual push on the offensive line. There are many great resources such as PFF that break these metrics down further. On the defensive side of the ball, the Bills run defense has plummeted to the bottom portion of the league over the course of the season. The Bengals rank middle of the pack in run defense, but since getting DJ Reader back they’ve been trending in the right direction. Both defenses are good in pass coverage. In terms of pass rush, the Bills grade out slightly higher. Both teams will have high motivation to win tonight. The Bills have the #1 seed on the line, which includes a bye week and the playoffs to go through Buffalo. The Bills hold the tiebreaker over the Chiefs, who won yesterday and play the Raiders next week. The Bengals can clinch their division with a win tonight, but would need the Chiefs to lose next week to have any chance at the #1 seed. All things considered, there’s a lot on the line for 2 very good teams. In a matchup like this, we are turning to our overall Power Rankings which have the Bills ahead of the Bengals. The Bengals offense sputtered against the Patriots last week after getting out to an early lead. We also have some concerns about the Bengals ability to protect Joe Burrow tonight. So while it is always nerve wracking to bet against either of these QB’s, we are going to back Josh Allen and the Bills to win. Our bet is 1 unit. 

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