A few things to note about this matchup. First, the Cowboys suffered a brutal loss to their offensive line last week. Right tackle Terence Steele will miss the remainder of the season. Steele was one of the highest graded offensive lineman in the league, he's allowed just 1 sack on the season. The Jaguars pass rush ranks top 10 in the league, so we expect the Jags to be able to get pressure on Dak Prescott today. In addition to a strong pass rush, the Jaguars have been solid against the run. They rank middle of the pack in run defense, but their metrics have been improving throughout the season. Jaguars QB Trevor Lawerence is playing phenomenal football right now. Lawerence has not thrown an interception in his last 5 games. This feels like too many points for the home team that has been trending upward. Our bet is 1 unit on the Jaguars to keep this game within the number.

After going 3-1 in their last 4 games, the Panthers find themselves right back in the playoff mix within the NFC South. The Steelers were favored in this game on the lookahead line last week. What happened that moved this spread nearly 5 points? The Steelers lost their QB to a concussion, the Panthers won a road game in Seattle, and now here we are at -3. Despite the recent surge, the DVOA metrics still have this Panthers team ranked as a bottom 5 team in the NFL. Our numbers suggest this spread should be closer to a true pick em, even without Kenny Pickett. The ticket splits are pretty close in this matchup, but the larger wagers are coming in on Pittsburgh. Some books have already moved this spread to 2.5, which is a pretty sharp signal to go through the key number of 3. We will go ahead and lock in the Steelers +3.

We are going to side with defense in this matchup. The Lions are one of the hottest teams in the NFL. They are 5-1 in their last 6 games, with their only loss coming to the Bills. That said, the Lions have looked like 2 different teams when playing on the road, versus playing at home in Detroit. We encourage you to dig into how extreme their home/away splits are. Jets star defensive lineman Quinnen Williams is questionable for this game, he didn't practice all week. His presence will be key today against one of the best offensive lines in the league. Keep an eye on the Jets injury report. The Jets QB situation doesn't factor much into our bet. We are backing this team behind their defense. Our bet is a half unit on the Jets to win.

The Titans have hit a bit of a skid recently. After a 7-1 stretch from late September to mid November, this team has dropped 3 straight. That said, those losses were to the 12-1 Eagles, the 9-4 Bengals, and a Jags team that has been playing very well since November. The Chargers are the lowest ranked team in the DVOA metrics with a winning record. To put that into perspective, they rank below the Giants, Raiders, and Broncos. Justin Herbert has been playing very well, which has kept this team in the win column despite the poor overall metrics. The Chargers defense is ranked bottom 3 in the NFL against the run, and several key players are out again for their defense. It should be tough sledding against Derrick Henry today. We are going to roll with a half unit bet on the Titans with the 3 points. Don't be afraid to sprinkle the moneyline as well.

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